相关论文: Predicting Drought and Subsidence Risks in France

Coastal flooding drives considerable risks to many communities, but projections of future flood risks are deeply uncertain. The paucity of observations of extreme events often motivates the use of statistical approaches to model the…

Distributed models to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides are based on deterministic laws. These models extend spatially the static stability models adopted in geotechnical engineering, and…

Climate change poses new risks for real estate assets. Given that the majority of home buyers use a loan to pay for their homes and the majority of these loans are purchased by the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs), it is important to…

The mean world climate has warmed since the 19th Century as the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases has increased the atmospheric opacity to thermal infrared radiation. Has this warming increased the frequency or severity of…

Estimating the effects of climate on economic output is crucial for formulating climate policy, but current empirical findings remain ambiguous. Using annual panel model and panel long-difference model with global subnational data from…

The increasing frequency of global climate extremes has significantly impacted the terrestrial carbon cycle. Extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and extreme precipitation pose serious threats to ecosystem carbon…

Weather parametric insurance relies on weather indices rather than actual loss assessments, enhancing claims efficiency, reducing moral hazard, and improving fairness. In the context of increasing climate change risks, despite growing…

Recent studies indicate that the effects of inter-annual climate-based variability in power system planning are significant and that long samples of demand & weather data (spanning multiple decades) should be considered. At the same time,…

Flood forecasts are crucial for effective individual and governmental protective action. The vast majority of flood-related casualties occur in developing countries, where providing spatially accurate forecasts is a challenge due to…

The European energy system will undergo major transformations in the coming decades to implement mitigation measures and comply with the Paris Agreement. In particular, the share of weather-dependent wind generation will increase…

In this paper, we analyze the long-term distributive impact of climate change through rising food prices. We use a standard incomplete markets model and account for non-linear Engel curves for food consumption. For the calibration of our…

A minimalist stochastic model of primary soil salinity is proposed, in which the rate of soil salinization is determined by the balance between dry and wet salt deposition and the intermittent leaching events caused by rainfall events. The…

The complex interplay between famine, warfare, and climate constitutes a multifaceted and context-dependent relationship that has profoundly influenced human history, particularly in early modern Europe. This study advances the literature…

Accurate stochastic simulations of hourly precipitation are needed for impact studies at local spatial scales. Statistically, hourly precipitation data represent a difficult challenge. They are non-negative, skewed, heavy tailed, contain a…

Fatigue-induced damage is still one of the most uncertain failures in structural systems. Prognostic health monitoring together with surrogate models can help to predict the fatigue life of a structure. This paper demonstrates how to…

Drought is a natural creeping threat with numerous damaging effects in various aspects of human life. Accurate drought prediction is a promising step in helping policy makers to set drought risk management strategies. To fulfill this…

Accurate forecasts of the impact of spatial weather and pan-European socio-economic and political risks on hourly electricity demand for the mid-term horizon are crucial for strategic decision-making amidst the inherent uncertainty. Most…

Climate change is widely expected to increase weather related damage and the insurance claims that result from it. This will increase insurance premiums, in a way that is independent of a customer's contribution to the causes of climate…

In natural phenomena, data distributions often deviate from normality. One can think of cataclysms as a self-explanatory example: events that occur almost never, and at the same time are many standard deviations away from the common…

Drought is a complex stochastic natural hazard caused by prolonged shortage of rainfall. Several environmental factors are involved in determining drought classes at the specific monitoring station. Therefore, efficient sequence processing…