相关论文: Unifying incidence and prevalence under a time-var…

Renewal processes are a popular approach used in modelling infectious disease outbreaks. In a renewal process, previous infections give rise to future infections. However, while this formulation seems sensible, its application to infectious…

The shapes of branching trees have been linked to disease transmission patterns. In this paper we use the general Crump-Mode-Jagers branching process to model an outbreak of an infectious disease under mild assumptions. Introducing a new…

The time-varying reproduction number ($R_t$) gives an indication of the trajectory of an infectious disease outbreak. Commonly used frameworks for inferring $R_t$ from epidemiological time series include those based on compartmental models…

We develop a stochastic framework for viral population dynamics at the cellular level that explicitly incorporates the replication cycle with random stage durations. The model is formulated as a structured birth-death process coupled with a…

We propose an integral model describing an epidemic of an infectious disease. The model is behavioural in the sense that the constitutive law for the force of infection includes a distributed delay, called "information index", that…

Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…

During infectious disease outbreaks, estimates of time-varying pathogen transmissibility, such as the instantaneous reproduction number R(t) or epidemic growth rate r(t), are used to inform decision-making by public health authorities. For…

We study two simple mathematical models of the epidemic. At first, we study the repetitive infection spreading in a simplified SIRS model including the effect of the decay of the acquired immune. The model is an intermediate model of the…

We present an analysis of six deterministic models for epidemic spreading. The evolution of the number of individuals of each class is given by ordinary differential equations of the first order in time, which are set up by using the laws…

We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a…

Traditionally, population models distinguish individuals on the basis of their current state. Given a distribution, a discrete time model then specifies (precisely in deterministic models, probabilistically in stochastic models) the…

In this work, several convergence results are established for nearly critical self-excited systems in which event arrivals are described by multivariate marked Hawkes point processes. Under some mild high-frequency assumptions, the rescaled…

We introduce an epidemic model with varying infectivity and general exposed and infectious periods, where the infectivity of each individual is a random function of the elapsed time since infection, those function being i.i.d. for the…

INAR (integer-valued autoregressive) and INGARCH (integer-valued GARCH) models are among the most commonly employed approaches for count time series modelling, but have been studied in largely distinct strands of literature. In this paper,…

We consider a continuous-time Markov chain model of SIR disease dynamics with two levels of mixing. For this so-called stochastic households model, we provide two methods for inferring the model parameters---governing within-household…

This paper is concerned with Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes, describing spread of an epidemic depending on the proportion of the population that is vaccinated. Births in the branching process are aborted independently with a…

This paper generalizes a previously published differential equation that describes the relation between the age-specific incidence, remission, and mortality of a disease with its prevalence. The underlying model is a simple compartment…

Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions,…

We propose and study a fully efficient method to estimate associations of an exposure with disease incidence when both, incident cases and prevalent cases, i.e. individuals who were diagnosed with the disease at some prior time point and…

Stochastic epidemic models can estimate infection and removal rates, and derived quantities such as the basic reproductive number ($R_0$), when both infection and removal times are observed. In practice, however, removal times are often…