相关论文: Zero-modified Count Time Series with Markovian Int…

This paper studies theory and inference of an observation-driven model for time series of counts. It is assumed that the observations follow a Poisson distribution conditioned on an accompanying intensity process, which is equipped with a…

Extreme-mass-ratio-inspiral observations from future space-based gravitational-wave detectors such as LISA will enable strong-field tests of general relativity with unprecedented precision, but at prohibitive computational cost if existing…

We consider estimating the transition probability matrix of a finite-state finite-observation alphabet hidden Markov model with known observation probabilities. The main contribution is a two-step algorithm; a method of moments estimator…

We propose in this work an original estimator of the conditional intensity of a marker-dependent counting process, that is, a counting process with covariates. We use model selection methods and provide a non asymptotic bound for the risk…

A Gaussian Cox process is a popular model for point process data, in which the intensity function is a transformation of a Gaussian process. Posterior inference of this intensity function involves an intractable integral (i.e., the…

Causal mediation analysis is an important statistical tool to quantify effects transmitted by intermediate variables from a cause to an outcome. There is a gap in mediation analysis methods to handle mixture mediator data that are…

Zero-inflated models are frequently used to deal with data having many zeros. A commonly used model for over-dispersed data containing zeros is known as the zero-inflated Poisson model. However, to account for the heterogeneity of counts…

A Poisson autoregressive (PAR) model accounting for discreteness and autocorrelation of count time series data is typically estimated in the state-space modelling framework through extended Kalman filter. However, because of the complex…

This paper develops the first class of algorithms that enable unbiased estimation of steady-state expectations for multidimensional reflected Brownian motion. In order to explain our ideas, we first consider the case of compound Poisson…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the reconstruction and prediction from observed time series data, of discretized stochastic dynamical systems, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Our results can be used…

Asymptotic properties of Markov Processes, such as steady state probabilities or hazard rate for absorbing states can be efficiently calculated by means of linear algebra even for large-scale problems. This paper discusses the methods for…

Researchers are often interested in predicting outcomes, conducting clustering analysis to detect distinct subgroups of their data, or computing causal treatment effects. Pathological data distributions that exhibit skewness and…

We propose a parametric model for the simulation of limit order books. We assume that limit orders, market orders and cancellations are submitted according to point processes with state-dependent intensities. We propose new functional forms…

We present a scalable Bayesian model for low-rank factorization of massive tensors with binary observations. The proposed model has the following key properties: (1) in contrast to the models based on the logistic or probit likelihood,…

Many clinical endpoint measures, such as the number of standard drinks consumed per week or the number of days that patients stayed in the hospital, are count data with excessive zeros. However, the zero-inflated nature of such outcomes is…

Multi-state models are frequently applied for representing processes evolving through a discrete set of state. Important classes of multi-state models arise when transitions between states may depend on the time since entry into the current…

We consider here together the inference questions and the change-point problem in Poisson autoregressions (see Tj{\o}stheim, 2012). The conditional mean (or intensity) of the process is involved as a non-linear function of it past values…

We consider a general model of unitary parameter estimation in presence of Markovian noise, where the parameter to be estimated is associated with the Hamiltonian part of the dynamics. In absence of noise, unitary parameter can be estimated…

We propose a general modeling framework for marked Poisson processes observed over time or space. The modeling approach exploits the connection of the nonhomogeneous Poisson process intensity with a density function. Nonparametric Dirichlet…

We propose several statistics to test the Markov hypothesis for $\beta$-mixing stationary processes sampled at discrete time intervals. Our tests are based on the Chapman--Kolmogorov equation. We establish the asymptotic null distributions…