相关论文: Travel Cadence and Epidemic Spread

For preventing the spread of epidemics such as the coronavirus disease COVID-19, social distancing and the isolation of infected persons are crucial. However, existing reaction-diffusion equations for epidemic spreading are incapable of…

Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. Epidemic curves predicted by these models are typically qualitatively similar, despite distinct model assumptions, but there is no theoretical explanation…

Measures to reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic require a mix of logistic, political and social capacity. Depending on the country, different approaches to increase hospitalization capacity or to properly apply lock-downs are…

Epidemics expose critical tensions between protecting public health and maintaining essential urban mobility. Public transport systems face this dilemma most acutely: they enable access to jobs, education, and services, yet also facilitate…

The course of an epidemic is not only shaped by infection transmission over face-to-face contacts, but also by preventive behaviour caused by risk perception and social interactions. This study explores the dynamics of coupled awareness and…

We propose a detailed discrete-time model of COVID-19 epidemics coming in two flavours, mean-field and probabilistic. The main contribution lies in several extensions of the basic model that capture i) user mobility - distinguishing…

We formulate a compartmental model for the propagation of a respiratory disease in a patchy environment. The patches are connected through the mobility of individuals, and we assume that disease transmission and recovery are possible during…

We develop a mathematical framework to study the economic impact of infectious diseases by integrating epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic model of wealth exchange. The multi-agent description leads to study the evolution over time of a…

The spontaneous behavioral changes of the agents during an epidemic can have significant effects on the delay and the prevalence of its spread. In this work, we study a social distancing game among the agents of a population, who determine…

We consider the spread of infectious diseases through a Mean Field Game version of a SIR compartmental model with social structure, in which individuals are grouped by their age class and interact together in different settings. In our game…

Human behavior plays a critical role in shaping epidemic trajectories. During health crises, people respond in diverse ways in terms of self-protection and adherence to recommended measures, largely reflecting differences in how individuals…

Epidemiological simulations as a method are used to better understand and predict the spreading of infectious diseases, for example of COVID-19. This paper presents an approach that combines person-centric data-driven human mobility…

We use a stochastic metapopulation model to study the combined effects of seasonality and spatial heterogeneity on disease persistence. We find a pronounced effect of enhanced persistence associated with strong heterogeneity, intermediate…

The importance of indoor human mobility in the transmission dynamics of respiratory infectious diseases has been acknowledged. Previous studies have predominantly addressed a single type of mobility behavior such as queueing and a series of…

Metapopulation models have been a powerful tool for both theorizing and simulating epidemic dynamics. In a metapopulation model, one considers a network composed of subpopulations and their pairwise connections, and individuals are assumed…

Human to human transmissible infectious diseases spread in a population using human interactions as its transmission vector. The early stages of such an outbreak can be modeled by a graph whose edges encode these interactions between…

The metapopulation network model is effectively used to study the spatial spread of epidemics with individuals mobility. Considering the time-varying nature of individual activity and the preferences for attractive destinations in…

The worldwide spread of COVID-19 has called for fast advancement of new modelling strategies to estimate its unprecedented spread. Here, we introduce a model based on the fundamental SIR equations with a stochastic disorder by a random…

Motile organisms can form stable agglomerates such as cities or colonies. In the outbreak of a highly contagious disease, the control of large-scale epidemic spread depends on factors like the number and size of agglomerates, travel rate…

Changs in individual behavior often entangles with the dynamic interaction of individuals, which complicates the epidemic process and brings great challenges for the understanding and control of the epidemic. In this work, we consider three…