相关论文: The piranha problem: Large effects swimming in a s…

A class of models for large-scale evolution and mass extinctions is presented. These models incorporate environmental changes on all scales, from influences on a single species to global effects. This is a step towards a unified picture of…

Small sample sizes are common in many disciplines, which necessitates pooling roughly similar datasets across multiple institutions to study weak but relevant associations between images and disease outcomes. Such data often manifest…

Cooperation is of utmost importance to society as a whole, but is often challenged by individual self-interests. While game theory has studied this problem extensively, there is little work on interactions within and across groups with…

Causal multiteam semantics is a framework where probabilistic dependencies arising from data and causation between variables can be together formalized and studied logically. We consider several logics in the setting of causal multiteam…

Current pooling rules for multiply imputed data assume infinite populations. In some situations this assumption is not feasible as every unit in the population has been observed, potentially leading to over-covered population estimates. We…

There is increasing interest among funding agencies to understand how they can best contribute to enhancing the socio-economic impact of research. Interdisciplinarity is often presented as a research mode that can facilitate impact but…

We study the dynamics of correlation and variance in systems under the load of environmental factors. A universal effect in ensembles of similar systems under the load of similar factors is described: in crisis, typically, even before…

We develop large sample theory for merged data from multiple sources. Main statistical issues treated in this paper are (1) the same unit potentially appears in multiple datasets from overlapping data sources, (2) duplicated items are not…

To construct models of large, multivariate complex systems, such as those in biology, one needs to constrain which variables are allowed to interact. This can be viewed as detecting "local" structures among the variables. In the context of…

This is the English version of my inaugural lecture at Coll\`ege de France in 2021, available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxktplKMhKU. I reflect on the difficulty of multi-disciplinary research, which often hinges of unexpected…

In aggregated variables the impact of interventions is typically ill-defined because different micro-realizations of the same macro-intervention can result in different changes of downstream macro-variables. We show that this…

As scientists we like to think that modern societies and their members base their views, opinions and behaviour on scientific facts. This is not necessarily the case, even though we are all (over-) exposed to information flow through…

Established frameworks to understand problems with reproducibility in science begin with the relationship between our understanding of the prior probability of a claim and the statistical certainty that should be demanded of it, and explore…

Explanation facilities are a particularly important feature of expert system frameworks. It is an area in which traditional rule-based expert system frameworks have had mixed results. While explanations about control are well handled,…

One distinctive and pervasive aspect of social systems is the fact that they comprise several kinds of agents. Thus, in order to draw parallels with physical systems one is lead to consider binary (or multi-component) compounds. Recent…

Modeling of high order multivariate probability distribution is a difficult problem which occurs in many fields. Copula approach is a good choice for this purpose, but the curse of dimensionality still remains a problem. In this paper we…

Understanding multiphase flows is vital to addressing some of our most pressing human needs: clean air, clean water and the sustainable production of food and energy. This article focuses on a subset of multiphase flows called…

Over the last decade several attempts have been made to extend biodiversity studies in ways that would allow researchers to explore how biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships may change across different spatial and temporal…

Opinion dynamics concerns social processes through which populations or groups of individuals agree or disagree on specific issues. As such, modelling opinion dynamics represents an important research area that has been progressively…

At finite concentrations of reacting molecules, kinetics of diffusion-controlled reactions is affected by intra-reactant interactions. As a result, multi-particle reaction statistics cannot be deduced from single-particle results. Here we…