相关论文: The piranha problem: Large effects swimming in a s…

Inferring causal models from observed correlations is a challenging task, crucial to many areas of science. In order to alleviate the computational effort when sifting through possible causal explanations for some given observations, it is…

The ability to answer causal questions is crucial in many domains, as causal inference allows one to understand the impact of interventions. In many applications, only a single intervention is possible at a given time. However, in some…

It appears paradoxical that science is producing outstanding new results and theories at a rapid rate at the same time that researchers are identifying serious problems in the practice of science that cause many reports to be irreproducible…

Complex system arises as a result of the nonlinear interactions between components. In particular, the evolutionary dynamics of a multivariate system encodes the ways in which different variables interact with each other individually or in…

Humanity faces numerous problems of common-pool resource appropriation. This class of multi-agent social dilemma includes the problems of ensuring sustainable use of fresh water, common fisheries, grazing pastures, and irrigation systems.…

Mass extinction is a phenomenon in the history of life on Earth when a considerable number of species go extinct over a relatively short period of time. The magnitude of extinction varies between the events, the most well known are the…

Linear model prediction with a large number of potential predictors is both statistically and computationally challenging. The traditional approaches are largely based on shrinkage selection/estimation methods, which are applicable even…

We study the mathematical properties of probabilistic processes in which the independent actions of $n$ players (`causes') can influence the outcome of each player (`effects'). In such a setting, each pair of outcomes will generally be…

A potential concern when simulating populations of large language models (LLMs) is data contamination, i.e. the possibility that training data may shape outcomes in unintended ways. While this concern is important and may hinder certain…

Statistical models that include random effects are commonly used to analyze longitudinal and correlated data, often with strong and parametric assumptions about the random effects distribution. There is marked disagreement in the literature…

Big Data dealing with the social produce predictive correlations for the benefit of brands and web platforms. Beyond "society" and "opinion" for which the text lays out a genealogy, appear the "traces" that must be theorized as…

In many applications of the probabilistic method, one looks to study phenomena that occur ``with high probability''. More recently however, in an attempt to understand some of the most fundamental problems in combinatorics, researchers have…

Cooperation is a widespread natural phenomenon yet current evolutionary thinking is dominated by the paradigm of selfish competition. Recent advanced in many fronts of Biology and Non-linear Physics are helping to bring cooperation to its…

We consider large-scale systems influenced by burnout variables - state variables that start active, shape dynamics, and irreversibly deactivate once certain conditions are met. Simulating what-if scenarios in such systems is…

Vine copula models have become highly popular practical tools for modeling multivariate dependencies. To maintain tractability, a commonly employed simplifying assumption is that conditional copulas remain unchanged by the conditioning…

This paper describes Simpson's paradox, and explains its serious implications for randomised control trials. In particular, we show that for any number of variables we can simulate the result of a controlled trial which uniformly points to…

The analysis of large experimental datasets frequently reveals significant interactions that are difficult to interpret within the theoretical framework guiding the research. Some of these interactions actually arise from the presence of…

Experimental and observational studies often lead to spurious association between the outcome and independent variables describing the intervention, because of confounding to third-party factors. Even in randomized clinical trials,…

Many causal models of interest in epidemiology involve longitudinal exposures, confounders and mediators. However, repeated measurements are not always available or used in practice, leading analysts to overlook the time-varying nature of…

Large scale models of physical phenomena demand the development of new statistical and computational tools in order to be effective. Many such models are `sloppy', i.e., exhibit behavior controlled by a relatively small number of parameter…