相关论文: An Immuno-epidemiological Model Linking Between-ho…
We combine a pedestrian dynamics model with a contact tracing method to simulate the initial spreading of a highly infectious airborne disease in a confined environment. We focus on a medium size population (up to 1000 people) with a small…
We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe…
We study an epidemic model for a constant population by taking into account four compartments of the individuals characterizing their states of health. Each individual is in one of the compartments susceptible (S); incubated - infected yet…
Nosocomial infections have important consequences for patients and hospital staff: they worsen patient outcomes and their management stresses already overburdened health systems. Accurate judgements of whether an infection is nosocomial…
A key problem in modelling the evolution dynamics of infectious diseases is the mathematical representation of the mechanism of transmission of the contagion. Models with a finite number of subpopulations can be described via systems of…
There has been interest in the interactions between infectious disease dynamics and behaviour for most of the history of mathematical epidemiology. This has included consideration of which mathematical models best capture each phenomenon,…
Within-host models of COVID-19 infection dynamics enable the merits of different forms of antiviral therapy to be assessed in individual patients. A stochastic agent-based model of COVID-19 intracellular dynamics is introduced here, that…
Infectious pathogens often propagate by superspreading, which focusses onward transmission on disproportionately few infected individuals. At the same time, infector-infectee pairs tend to have more similar transmission potentials than…
Viruses evolve in the background of host immune systems that exert selective pressure and drive viral evolutionary trajectories. This interaction leads to different evolutionary patterns in antigenic space. Examples observed in nature…
The use of model experimental systems and mathematical models is important to further understanding of infectious disease dynamics and strategize disease mitigation. Gyrodactylids are helminth ectoparasites of teleost fish which have many…
Traditional disease transmission models assume that the infectious period is exponentially distributed with a recovery rate fixed in time and across individuals. This assumption provides analytical and computational advantages, however it…
Many infectious diseases are comprised of multiple strains with examples including Influenza, tuberculosis, and Dengue virus. The time evolution of such systems is linked to a complex landscape shaped by interactions between competing…
The spatial structure of populations is a key element in the understanding of the large scale spreading of epidemics. Motivated by the recent empirical evidence on the heterogeneous properties of transportation and commuting patterns among…
The aim of this paper is to study the long-term consequence on longevity of a mortality shock. We adopt an historical and modeling approach to study how the population evolution following a mortality shock such as the COVID-19 pandemic…
Recent work has attempted to use whole-genome sequence data from pathogens to reconstruct the transmission trees linking infectors and infectees in outbreaks. However, transmission trees from one outbreak do not generalize to future…
We propose a fully cooperative coinfection model in which singly infected individuals are more likely to acquire a second disease than those who are susceptible, and doubly infected individuals are also assumed to be more contagious than…
Co-infecting parasites and pathogens remain a leading challenge for global public health due to their consequences for individual-level infection risk and disease progression. However, a clear understanding of the population-level…
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has led to an increasing interest in the modeling and analysis of infectious diseases. The pandemic has made a significant impact on the way we behave and interact in our daily life. The past year has witnessed…
The effective control of infectious diseases relies on accurate assessment of the impact of interventions, which is often hindered by the complex dynamics of the spread of disease. A Beta-Dirichlet switching state-space transmission model…
We present a study of the worldwide spread of a pandemic influenza and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global…