相关论文: Quantifying firm-level economic systemic risk from…
National economies rest on networks of millions of customer-supplier relations. Some companies -- in the case of their default -- can trigger significant cascades of shock in the supply-chain network and are thus systemically risky. Up to…
Production networks constitute the backbone of every economic system. They are inherently fragile as several recent crises clearly highlighted. Estimating the system-wide consequences of local disruptions (systemic risk) requires detailed…
Realistic credit risk assessment, the estimation of losses from counterparty's failure, is central for the financial stability. Credit risk models focus on the financial conditions of borrowers and only marginally consider other risks from…
For centuries, national economies created wealth by engaging in international trade and production. The resulting international supply networks not only increase wealth for countries, but also create systemic risk: economic shocks,…
Recent crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions have exposed vulnerabilities and caused disruptions of supply chains, leading to product shortages, increased costs, and economic instability. This has prompted increasing…
The networked nature of supply chains makes them susceptible to systemic risk, where local firm failures can propagate through firm interdependencies that can lead to cascading supply chain disruptions. The systemic risk of supply chains…
Supply chain disruptions constitute an often underestimated risk for financial stability. As in financial networks, systemic risks in production networks arises when the local failure of one firm impacts the production of others and might…
Financial markets are exposed to systemic risk (SR), the risk that a major fraction of the system ceases to function, and collapses. It has recently become possible to quantify SR in terms of underlying financial networks where nodes…
Risk assessment is a major challenge for supply chain managers, as it potentially affects business factors such as service costs, supplier competition and customer expectations. The increasing interconnectivity between organisations has put…
Systemic risk is the risk that a company- or industry-level risk could trigger a huge collapse of another or even the whole institution. Various systemic risk measures have been proposed in the literature to quantify the domino and…
The Covid-19 pandemic drastically emphasized the fragility of national and international supply networks (SNs),leading to significant supply shortages of essential goods for people, such as food and medical equipment. Severe disruptions…
Supply chain networks (SCN) form the structural backbone of any society. They constitute the societal metabolism that literally produces everything for everybody by coordinating practically every single person on the planet. SCNs are by no…
There is a large consensus on the fundamental role of firm-level supply chain networks in macroeconomics. However, data on supply chains at the fine-grained, firm level are scarce and frequently incomplete. For listed firms, some commercial…
Measuring the contribution of a bank or an insurance company to overall systemic risk is a key concern, particularly in the aftermath of the 2007--2009 financial crisis and the 2020 downturn. In this paper, we derive worst-case and…
Modern macroeconomic theories were unable to foresee the last Great Recession and could neither predict its prolonged duration nor the recovery rate. They are based on supply-demand equilibria that do not exist during recessionary shocks.…
We study the disequilibrium dynamics of a stylised model of production networks in which firms use perishable and non-substitutable intermediate inputs, so that adverse idiosyncratic productivity shocks can trigger downstream shortages and…
We address a fundamental problem that is systematically encountered when modeling complex systems: the limitedness of the information available. In the case of economic and financial networks, privacy issues severely limit the information…
Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) rating is a way for investors to prioritise investments in companies with good corporate behaviour. However, ESG ratings are vulnerable to greenwashing in a number of ways. In this paper we study…
Production in an economy is a set of firms' activities as suppliers and customers; a firm buys goods from other firms, puts value added and sells products to others in a giant network of production. Empirical study is lacking despite the…
Evaluation of systemic risk in networks of financial institutions in general requires information of inter-institution financial exposures. In the framework of Debt Rank algorithm, we introduce an approximate method of systemic risk…