相关论文: Inferring the main drivers of SARS-CoV-2 global tr…

Timely prediction of the COVID-19 progression is not possible without a comprehensive understanding of environmental factors that may affect the infection transmissibility. Studies addressing parameters that may influence COVID-19…

Many studies have proposed a relationship between COVID-19 transmissibility and ambient pollution levels. However, a major limitation in establishing such associations is to adequately account for complex disease dynamics, influenced by…

Characterising drivers of SARS-CoV-2 circulation is crucial for understanding COVID-19 because of the severity of control measures adopted during the pandemic. Whole genome sequence data augmented with demographic metadata provides the best…

The reproductive number R_0 (and its value after initial disease emergence R) has long been used to predict the likelihood of pathogen invasion, to gauge the potential severity of an epidemic, and to set policy around interventions.…

The basic reproduction number, $R_0$ is an important and widely used concept in the study of infectious diseases. We briefly review the recent trend of calculating the average of various $R_0$ estimates in systematic reviews aimed at…

The determination of the infection fatality rate (IFR) for the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is a key aim for many of the field studies that are currently being undertaken in response to the pandemic. The IFR together with the basic…

OBJECTIVES: Estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 vary across countries. This paper aims to characterise the spatial variability in R0 across the first six months of the global COVID-19 outbreak, and to explore social…

The recent outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has quickly evolved into a global health crisis. The transmission potential of 2019-nCoV has been modelled and studied in several recent research works. The key factors such as the…

Due to the rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, quick public health investigations of the relationships between behaviours and infection risk are essential. Recently the test-negative design was proposed to…

The mechanism of SARS-CoV-2 evolution and transmission is elusive and its understanding, a prerequisite to forecast emerging variants, is of paramount importance. SARS-CoV-2 evolution is driven by the mechanisms at molecular and organism…

In light of the continuing emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccines, we create a simulation framework for exploring possible infection trajectories under various scenarios. The situations of primary interest involve the interaction…

An important issue in theoretical epidemiology is the epidemic threshold phenomenon, which specify the conditions for an epidemic to grow or die out. In standard (mean-field-like) compartmental models the concept of the basic reproductive…

The large-scale evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been marked by rapid turnover of genetic clades. New variants show intrinsic changes, notably increased transmissibility, as well as antigenic changes that reduce the cross-immunity…

SARS-CoV-2 causing COVID-19 disease has moved rapidly around the globe, infecting millions and killing hundreds of thousands. The basic reproduction number, which has been widely used and misused to characterize the transmissibility of the…

The correct evaluation of the reproductive number $R$ for COVID-19 -- which characterizes the average number of secondary cases generated by each typical primary case -- is central in the quantification of the potential scope of the…

Determining who is at risk from a disease is important in order to protect vulnerable subpopulations during an outbreak. We are currently in a SARS-COV-2 (commonly referred to as COVID-19) pandemic which has had a massive impact across the…

Accurate and reliable forecasting of emerging dominant severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants enables policymakers and vaccine makers to get prepared for future waves of infections. The last three waves of…

Motivated by analogies between the spreading of human-to-human infections and of chemical processes, we develop a comprehensive model that accounts both for infection and for transport. In this analogy, the three different populations of…

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a great catastrophe that upended human lives and caused millions of deaths all over the world. The rapid spread of the virus, with its early-stage exponential growth and subsequent 'waves', caught many medical…

The COVID-19 pandemic is spreading rapidly around the world, causing countries to impose lockdowns and efforts to develop vaccines on a global scale. However, human-to-animal and animal-to-human transmission cannot be ignored, as severe…