相关论文: Recursive contact tracing in Reed-Frost epidemic m…
In this paper, a branching process approximation for the spread of a Reed-Frost epidemic on a network with tunable clustering is derived. The approximation gives rise to expressions for the epidemic threshold and the probability of a large…
The challenges presented by the COVID-19 epidemic have created a renewed interest in the development of new methods to combat infectious diseases. A prominent property of the SARS-CoV-2 transmission is the significant fraction of…
We present a contact-based model to study the spreading of epidemics by means of extending the dynamic message passing approach to temporal networks. The shift in perspective from node- to edge-centric quantities enables accurate modelling…
The dynamics of many epidemic compartmental models for infectious diseases that spread in a single host population present a second-order phase transition. This transition occurs as a function of the infectivity parameter, from the absence…
We present a finite-size scaling theory of a contact process with permanent immunity on uncorrelated scale-free networks. We model an epidemic outbreak by an analog of the susceptible-infected-removed model where an infected individual…
We show existence of a non-trivial phase transition for the contact process, a simple model for infection without immunity, on a network which reacts dynamically to the infection trying to prevent an epidemic. This network initially has the…
When an unprecedented infectious disease with high mortality and transmissibility emerges, immediate usage of vaccines or medicines is hardly available. Thus, many health authorities rely on non-pharmaceutical interventions through…
For rapidly spreading diseases where many cases show no symptoms, swift and effective contact tracing is essential. While exposure notification applications provide alerts on potential exposures, a fully automated system is needed to track…
A generalization of the standard susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) stochastic model for epidemics in sparse random networks is introduced which incorporates contact tracing in addition to random screening. We propose a deterministic…
Contact tracing is one of the most important control measures deployed during epidemics. Relying on the identification of contacts of known infected individuals, it necessitates a network perspective. Although pairwise models have been used…
The primary tool for predicting infectious disease spread and intervention effectiveness is the mass action Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of Kermack and McKendrick. Its usefulness derives largely from its conceptual and mathematical…
We study the effects of switching social contacts as a strategy to control epidemic outbreaks. Connections between susceptible and infective individuals can be broken by either individual, and then reconnected to a randomly chosen member of…
In recent years, it became clear that super-spreader events play an important role, particularly in the spread of airborne infections. We investigate a novel model for super-spreader events, not based on a heterogeneous contact graph but on…
The contact process is a simple infection spreading model showcasing an out-of-equilibrium phase transition between a macroscopically active and an inactive phase. Such absorbing state phase transitions are often sensitive to the presence…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
We consider the contact process on a dynamic graph defined as a random $d$-regular graph with a stationary edge-switching dynamics. In this graph dynamics, independently of the contact process state, each pair $\{e_1,e_2\}$ of edges of the…
We show results for the contact process on Barabasi networks. The contact process is a model for an epidemic spreading without permanent immunity that has an absorbing state. For finite lattices, the absorbing state is the true stationary…
We obtain tight thresholds for bond percolation on one-dimensional small-world graphs, and apply such results to obtain tight thresholds for the \emph{Independent Cascade} process and the \emph{Reed-Frost} process in such graphs. These are…
In this paper we study a susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model with asymptomatic patients, contact tracing and isolation on a configuration network. Using degree based approximation, we derive a system of differential equations for…
This paper is concerned with contact process with random vertex weights on regular trees, and study the asymptotic behavior of the critical infection rate as the degree of the trees increasing to infinity. In this model, the infection…