相关论文: Uncertainty on the Reproduction Ratio in the SIR M…

In this paper we consider epidemic models of directly transmissible SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) and SEIR (with an additional latent class) infections in fully-susceptible populations with a social structure, consisting…

We propose two SIR models which incorporate sociological behavior of groups of individuals. It is these differences in behaviors which impose different infection rates on the individual susceptible populations, rather than biological…

The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is the cornerstone of epidemiological models. However, this specification depends on two parameters only, which implies a lack of flexibility and the difficulty to replicate the volatile…

In this work, we revisit the basic reproduction rate $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ definition for analysis of epidemic-non-epidemic phases describing the dynamics of the discrete stochastic version of the epidemic $SIR$ model based on the Master…

We consider a single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number $\mathcal{R}(t)$. We discuss the estimation of the underlying SIR parameters with a…

Stochastic epidemic models can estimate infection and removal rates, and derived quantities such as the basic reproductive number ($R_0$), when both infection and removal times are observed. In practice, however, removal times are often…

AIMS. The maximum-likelihood method is the standard approach to obtain model fits to observational data and the corresponding confidence regions. We investigate possible sources of bias in the log-likelihood function and its subsequent…

In this paper, we consider a discrete-time stochastic SIR model, where the transmission rate and the true number of infectious individuals are random and unobservable. An advantage of this model is that it permits us to account for random…

A general stochastic model for susceptible -> infective -> recovered (SIR) epidemics in non homogeneous populations is considered. The heterogeneity is a very important aspect here since it allows more realistic but also more complex…

The basic reproduction number, $R_0$ is an important and widely used concept in the study of infectious diseases. We briefly review the recent trend of calculating the average of various $R_0$ estimates in systematic reviews aimed at…

The restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimator of the dispersion matrix for random coefficient models is rewritten in terms of the sufficient statistics of the individual regressions.

This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…

Within the likes of any highly contagious and unpredictable disease, lies a predictable and attainable growth rate that researchers can find in order to make logistical conclusions about that particular disease and its affected regions'…

The stationary distribution of allele frequencies under a variety of Wright--Fisher $k$-allele models with selection and parent independent mutation is well studied. However, the statistical properties of maximum likelihood estimates of…

We adopt a maximum-likelihood framework to estimate parameters of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on a rooted random tree. Given the number of detectees per index case, our estimator allows to…

The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the…

This work examines the discrete-time networked SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemic model, where the infection and recovery parameters may be time-varying. We provide a sufficient condition for the SIR model to converge to the set…

We study a multitype SIR epidemic model where individuals are categorized into different types, and where infection spread is characterized by a next-generation matrix $M=\{m_{ij}\}$ with community fractions $\{\pi_j\}$ for the different…

During an infectious disease outbreak, public health decision-makers require real-time monitoring of disease transmission to respond quickly and intelligently. In these settings, a key measure of transmission is the instantaneous…

Monitoring the Covid19 pandemic constitutes a critical societal stake that received considerable research efforts. The intensity of the pandemic on a given territory is efficiently measured by the reproduction number, quantifying the rate…