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The increase in the use of mobile and wearable devices now allows dense assessment of mediating processes over time. For example, a pharmacological intervention may have an effect on smoking cessation via reductions in momentary withdrawal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-18 Donna L. Coffman , John J. Dziak , Kaylee Litson , Yajnaseni Chakraborti , Megan E. Piper , Runze Li

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with machine learning has attracted substantial attention in both academic research and industrial practice. However, the two communities often evaluate models under markedly different conditions.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-26 George Panagopoulos

Recent work has focused on the potential and pitfalls of causal identification in observational studies with multiple simultaneous treatments. Building on previous work, we show that even if the conditional distribution of unmeasured…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-28 Jiajing Zheng , Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks

In causal mediation studies that decompose an average treatment effect into a natural indirect effect (NIE) and a natural direct effect (NDE), examples of post-treatment confounding are abundant. Past research has generally considered it…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-07-26 Guanglei Hong , Fan Yang , Xu Qin

Causal mediation analysis is widely used to investigate how causal effects operate through specific pathways linking treatments or exposures to outcomes. Recently, \texttt{crumble} was developed to enable nonparametric estimation of several…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-14 Richard Liu , Nicholas T. Williams , Kara E. Rudolph , Ivan Diaz

We propose a set of causal estimands that we call the "mediated probabilities of causation." These estimands quantify the probabilities that an observed negative outcome was induced via a mediating pathway versus a direct pathway in a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-14 Max Rubinstein , Maria Cuellar , Daniel Malinsky

Researchers are often interested in analyzing conditional treatment effects. One variant of this is "causal moderation," which implies that intervention upon a third (moderator) variable would alter the treatment effect. This study…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-08-25 Kirk Bansak

Physical activity has long been shown to be associated with biological and physiological performance and risk of diseases. It is of great interest to assess whether the effect of an exposure or intervention on an outcome is mediated through…

Missing exposure information is a very common feature of many observational studies. Here we study identifiability and efficient estimation of causal effects on vector outcomes, in such cases where treatment is unconfounded but partially…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-02-04 Edward H. Kennedy

Performing causal inference in observational studies requires we assume confounding variables are correctly adjusted for. G-computation methods are often used in these scenarios, with several recent proposals using Bayesian versions of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-10-25 Daniel Daly-Grafstein , Paul Gustafson

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-02-24 Maximilian Ilse , Patrick Forré , Max Welling , Joris M. Mooij

Mediation analysis plays a crucial role in causal inference as it can investigate the pathways through which treatment influences outcome. Most existing mediation analysis assumes that mediation effects are static and homogeneous within…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-02 Yijiao Zhang , Yubai Yuan , Yuexia Zhang , Zhongyi Zhu , Annie Qu

This study introduces a mediation analysis framework when the mediator is a graph. A Gaussian covariance graph model is assumed for graph representation. Causal estimands and assumptions are discussed under this representation. With a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-11 Yixi Xu , Yi Zhao

Causal mediation analysis seeks to investigate how the treatment effect of an exposure on outcomes is mediated through intermediate variables. Although many applications involve longitudinal data, the existing methods are not directly…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-02-24 Shuxi Zeng , Stacy Rosenbaum , Elizabeth Archie , Susan Alberts , Fan Li

The presence of intermediate confounders, also called recanting witnesses, is a fundamental challenge to the investigation of causal mechanisms in mediation analysis, preventing the identification of natural path-specific effects. Proposed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-10 Tat-Thang Vo , Nicholas Williams , Richard Liu , Kara E. Rudolph , Ivan Dıaz

The path-specific effect (PSE) is of primary interest in mediation analysis when multiple intermediate variables between treatment and outcome are observed, as it can isolate the specific effect through each mediator, thus mitigating…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-16 Jiawei Shan , Ting Wang , Wei Li , Chunrong Ai

In randomized trials, once the total effect of the intervention has been estimated, it is often of interest to explore mechanistic effects through mediators along the causal pathway between the randomized treatment and the outcome. In the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-28 Erin E Gabriel , Michael C Sachs , Arvid Sjölander

Decomposing a total causal effect into natural direct and indirect effects is central to revealing causal mechanisms. Conventional methods achieve the decomposition by specifying an outcome model as a linear function of the treatment, the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-05 Guanglei Hong

Results in epidemiology and social science often require the removal of confounding effects from measurements of the pairwise correlation of variables in survey data. This is typically accomplished by some variant of linear regression…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-02 William H. Press

A key challenge in causal inference from observational studies is the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach for causal inference that…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-17 Ying Zhou , Dingke Tang , Dehan Kong , Linbo Wang