相关论文: Inferring the effect of interventions on COVID-19 …

To date, the only effective means to respond to the spreading of COVID-19 pandemic are non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which entail policies to reduce social activity and mobility restrictions. Quantifying their effect is…

Infectious diseases and human behavior are intertwined. On one side, our movements and interactions are the engines of transmission. On the other, the unfolding of viruses might induce changes to our daily activities. While intuitive, our…

Facing a global epidemic of new infectious diseases such as COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which reduce transmission rates without medical actions, are being implemented around the world to mitigate spreads. One of the…

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, and virus-contact tracing can greatly reduce the spread of the virus during a pandemic. In the wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have…

Non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs) play an important role in the early stage control of COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination is considered to be the inevitable course to stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Based on the mechanism, a SVEIR COVID-19…

We propose a general Bayesian approach to modeling epidemics such as COVID-19. The approach grew out of specific analyses conducted during the pandemic, in particular an analysis concerning the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions…

We propose a multi-layer network model for the spread of COVID-19 that accounts for interactions within the family, between schoolmates, and casual contacts in the population. We utilize the proposed model-calibrated on epidemiological and…

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented global public health challenge. In the United States (US), state governments have implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as physical distance…

We combine infectious disease transmission and the non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) response to disease incidence into one closed model consisting of two coupled delay differential equations for the incidence rate and the…

To what extent are effectiveness estimates of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 influenced by the assumptions our models make? To answer this question, we investigate 2 state-of-the-art NPI effectiveness models and…

This paper introduces a dynamic panel SIR (DP-SIR) model to investigate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the COVID-19 transmission dynamics with panel data from 9 countries across the globe. By constructing scenarios…

As COVID-19 is rapidly spreading across the globe, short-term modeling forecasts provide time-critical information for decisions on containment and mitigation strategies. A main challenge for short-term forecasts is the assessment of key…

During outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, internationally connected cities often experience large and early outbreaks, while rural regions follow after some delay. This hierarchical structure of disease spread is influenced…

Non-pharmacologic interventions (NPIs) are one method to mitigate the spread and effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. NPIs promote protective actions to reduce exposure risk and can reduce mobility patterns within…

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including mask-wearing, physical distancing, and hygiene measures, provide the primary means of reducing transmission in the early stages of an epidemic. Individuals adopt one of two…

The first mitigation response to the Covid-19 pandemic was to limit person-to-person interaction as much as possible. This was implemented by the temporary closing of many workplaces and people were required to follow social distancing.…

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been crucial in curbing COVID-19 in the United States (US). Consequently, relaxing NPIs through a phased re-opening of the US amid still-high levels of COVID-19 susceptibility could lead to new…

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have played a crucial role in controlling the spread of COVID-19. Nevertheless, NPI efficacy varies enormously between and within countries, mainly because of population and behavioural heterogeneity.…

Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been crucial for controlling COVID-19. They are complemented by voluntary health-protective behaviour, building a complex interplay between risk perception, behaviour, and…

This paper considers the problem of designing non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) strategies, such as masking and social distancing, to slow the spread of a viral epidemic. We formulate the problem of jointly minimizing the infection…