相关论文: Hierarchical spline for time series forecasting: A…

Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed for modeling tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage potential in the Atlantic basin. We model the joint probability distribution of tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage…

Spatial connectivity is an important consideration when modelling infectious disease data across a geographical region. Connectivity can arise for many reasons, including shared characteristics between regions, and human or vector movement.…

This paper discusses the prediction of hierarchical time series, where each upper-level time series is calculated by summing appropriate lower-level time series. Forecasts for such hierarchical time series should be coherent, meaning that…

The aim of this paper is to present the technique (and its linkage with physics) of overcoming problems connected to modeling social structures, which are typically hierarchical. Hierarchical Linear Models provide a conceptual and…

Transmission line outage rates are fundamental to power system reliability analysis. Line outages are infrequent, occurring only about once a year, so outage data are limited. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that leverages line…

Vessel trajectory clustering, which aims to find similar trajectory patterns, has been widely leveraged in overwater applications. Most traditional methods use predefined rules and thresholds to identify discrete vessel behaviors. They aim…

The features in many prediction models naturally take the form of a hierarchy. The lower levels represent individuals or events. These units group naturally into locations and intervals or other aggregates, often at multiple levels. Levels…

This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian multitask learning model that is applicable to the general multi-task binary classification learning problem where the model assumes a shared sparsity structure across different tasks. We derive a…

We discuss a Bayesian hierarchical copula model for clusters of financial time series. A similar approach has been developed in recent paper. However, the prior distributions proposed there do not always provide a proper posterior. In order…

Multiple seasonal patterns play a key role in time series forecasting, especially for business time series where seasonal effects are often dramatic. Previous approaches including Fourier decomposition, exponential smoothing, and seasonal…

For predictive maintenance, we examine one of the largest public datasets for machine failures derived along with their corresponding precursors as error rates, historical part replacements, and sensor inputs. To simplify the time and…

Large-scale computing systems today are assembled by numerous computing units for massive computational capability needed to solve problems at scale, which enables failures common events in supercomputing scenarios. Considering the…

In engineering systems, it is usually assumed that lifetimes of components are independent and identically distributed (iid). But, the failure of a component results in a higher load on the remaining components and hence causes the…

We have developed a sophisticated statistical model for predicting the hitting performance of Major League baseball players. The Bayesian paradigm provides a principled method for balancing past performance with crucial covariates, such as…

The rapid development of time series forecasting research has brought many deep learning-based modules in this field. However, despite the increasing amount of new forecasting architectures, it is still unclear if we have leveraged the full…

Probabilistic time-series models become popular in the forecasting field as they help to make optimal decisions under uncertainty. Despite the growing interest, a lack of thorough analysis hinders choosing what is worth applying for the…

We present a systematic way to analyze and model systems having many characteristic time-scales. The method we propose is employed for a test-case of a meandering jet model manifesting chaotic tracer dispersion with long time-correlations.…

Many sectors nowadays require accurate and coherent predictions across their organization to effectively operate. Otherwise, decision-makers would be planning using disparate views of the future, resulting in inconsistent decisions across…

In this paper, we propose a machine learning approach for forecasting hierarchical time series. When dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from generating accurate forecasts, one needs to select a suitable method for producing…

This paper introduces a novel hierarchical Bayesian model specifically designed to address challenges in Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (IUQ) for time-dependent problems in nuclear Thermal Hydraulics (TH) systems. The unique…