相关论文: Hierarchical spline for time series forecasting: A…
Performance estimation aims at estimating the loss that a predictive model will incur on unseen data. These procedures are part of the pipeline in every machine learning project and are used for assessing the overall generalisation ability…
We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for spatial extremes on a large domain. In the data layer a Gaussian elliptical copula having generalized extreme value (GEV) marginals is applied. Spatial dependence in the GEV parameters are…
Prediction of breakdown in disordered solids under external loading in a question of paramount importance. Here we use a fiber bundle model for disordered solids and record the time series of the avalanche sizes and energy bursts. The time…
In economics we often face a system, which intrinsically imposes a structure of hierarchy of its components, i.e., in modelling trade accounts related to foreign exchange or in optimization of regional air protection policy. A problem of…
The effectiveness of the machine learning methods for real-world tasks depends on the proper structure of the modeling pipeline. The proposed approach is aimed to automate the design of composite machine learning pipelines, which is…
Understanding performance and prioritizing resources for the maintenance of the drinking-water pipe network throughout its life-cycle is a key part of water asset management. Renovation of this vital network is generally hindered by the…
Probabilistic model-based diagnosis computes the posterior probabilities of failure of components from the prior probabilities of component failure and observations of system behavior. One problem with this method is that such priors are…
Missing time-series data is a prevalent practical problem. Imputation methods in time-series data often are applied to the full panel data with the purpose of training a model for a downstream out-of-sample task. For example, in finance,…
Recent years have witnessed tremendously improved efficiency of Automated Machine Learning (AutoML), especially Automated Deep Learning (AutoDL) systems, but recent work focuses on tabular, image, or NLP tasks. So far, little attention has…
As in many fields of dynamic modeling, the long runtime of hydrological models hinders Bayesian inference of model parameters from data. By replacing a model with an approximation of its output as a function of input and/or parameters,…
Common statistical practice has shown that the full power of Bayesian methods is not realized until hierarchical priors are used, as these allow for greater "robustness" and the ability to "share statistical strength." Yet it is an ongoing…
We introduce the Hierarchically Interacting Particle Neural Network (HIP-NN) to model molecular properties from datasets of quantum calculations. Inspired by a many-body expansion, HIP-NN decomposes properties, such as energy, as a sum over…
We formulate the problem of probabilistic predictions of global failure in the simplest possible model based on site percolation and on one of the simplest model of time-dependent rupture, a hierarchical fiber bundle model. We show that…
Non-neural Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) models are often used to predict system failures in the context of industrial maintenance. However, only a few researches jointly assess the effect of varying the amount of past data…
We developed an integrated hierarchical Bayesian life cycle model that simultaneously estimates the abundance of post-smolts at sea, post-smolt survival rates, and proportions maturing as 1SW, for all SU in Northern Europe, Southern Europe…
The estimation of small probabilities of failure from computer simulations is a classical problem in engineering, and the Subset Simulation algorithm proposed by Au & Beck (Prob. Eng. Mech., 2001) has become one of the most popular method…
Electromagnetic stimulation probes and modulates the neural systems that control movement. Key to understanding their effects is the muscle recruitment curve, which maps evoked potential size against stimulation intensity. Current methods…
Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is pervasive in real-world applications, demanding not only predicting each level of the hierarchy, but also reconciling all forecasts to ensure coherency, i.e., the forecasts…
Failure times of a machinery cannot always be assumed independent and identically distributed, e.g. if after reparations the machinery is not restored to a same-as-new condition. Framed within the renewal processes approach, a…
We review basic modeling approaches for failure and maintenance data from repairable systems. In particular we consider imperfect repair models, defined in terms of virtual age processes, and the trend-renewal process which extends the…