相关论文: Hierarchical spline for time series forecasting: A…

To operate process engineering systems in a safe and reliable manner, predictive models are often used in decision making. In many cases, these are mechanistic first principles models which aim to accurately describe the process. In…

Hierarchical time-series forecasting is essential for demand prediction across various industries. While machine learning models have obtained significant accuracy and scalability on such forecasting tasks, the interpretability of their…

Time series of counts arise in a variety of forecasting applications, for which traditional models are generally inappropriate. This paper introduces a hierarchical Bayesian formulation applicable to count time series that can easily…

Model predictive control (MPC) with learned world models has emerged as a promising paradigm for embodied control, particularly for its ability to generalize zero-shot when deployed in new environments. However, learned world models often…

Tropical cyclones present a serious threat to many coastal communities around the world. Many numerical weather prediction models provide deterministic forecasts with limited measures of their forecast uncertainty. Standard postprocessing…

The evaluation of a multifaceted program against extreme poverty in different developing countries gave encouraging results, but with important heterogeneity between countries. This master thesis proposes to study this heterogeneity with a…

Gaussian process regression has proven very powerful in statistics, machine learning and inverse problems. A crucial aspect of the success of this methodology, in a wide range of applications to complex and real-world problems, is…

In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model fluid-induced seismicity. The framework is based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with a fluid-induced seismicity rate proportional to the rate of injected…

We implement a Bayesian inference process for Neural Networks to model the time to failure of highly reliable weapon systems with interval-censored data and time-varying covariates. We analyze and benchmark our approach, LaplaceNN, on…

In this paper, we extend and analyze a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model for physical systems. A novelty is to model the discrepancy between the output of a computer simulator for a physical process and the actual process values…

Stochastic comparisons of series and parallel systems are important in many areas of engineering, operations research and reliability analysis. These comparisons allow for the evaluation of the performance and reliability of systems under…

The high-pressure transportation process of pipeline necessitates an accurate hydraulic transient simulation tool to prevent slack line flow and over-pressure, which can endanger pipeline operations. However, current numerical solution…

We give a risk-averse solution to the problem of estimating the reliability of a parallel-series system. We adopt a beta-binomial model for components reliabilities, and assume that the total sample size for the experience is fixed. The…

We propose and illustrate a hierarchical Bayesian approach for matching statistical records observed on different occasions. We show how this model can be profitably adopted both in record linkage problems and in capture--recapture setups,…

This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian model for probabilistic estimation of the electric vehicle battery capacity fade. Since the battery aging factors such as temperature, current, and state of charge are not fixed, and they change…

We study adaptive pooling under predictive heterogeneity in high-dimensional multivariate time series forecasting, where global models improve statistical efficiency but may fail to capture heterogeneous predictive structure, while naive…

Model-based diagnosis reasons backwards from a functional schematic of a system to isolate faults given observations of anomalous behavior. We develop a fully probabilistic approach to model based diagnosis and extend it to support…

A common problem in Machine Learning and statistics consists in detecting whether the current sample in a stream of data belongs to the same distribution as previous ones, is an isolated outlier or inaugurates a new distribution of data. We…

This paper deals with inference and prediction for multiple correlated time series, where one has also the choice of using a candidate pool of contemporaneous predictors for each target series. Starting with a structural model for the…

Machine learning (ML) provides powerful tools for predictive modeling. ML's popularity stems from the promise of sample-level prediction with applications across a variety of fields from physics and marketing to healthcare. However, if not…