相关论文: Hierarchical spline for time series forecasting: A…

A population-level analysis is proposed to address data sparsity when building predictive models for engineering infrastructure. Utilising an interpretable hierarchical Bayesian approach and operational fleet data, domain expertise is…

We classify two types of Hierarchical Bayesian Model found in the literature as Hierarchical Prior Model (HPM) and Hierarchical Stochastic Model (HSM). Then, we focus on studying the theoretical implications of the HSM. Using examples of…

This article introduces methods for constructing prediction bounds or intervals for the number of future failures from heterogeneous reliability field data. We focus on within-sample prediction where early data from a failure-time process…

Accurate modeling of ship performance is crucial for the shipping industry to optimize fuel consumption and subsequently reduce emissions. However, predicting the speed-power relation in real-world conditions remains a challenge. In this…

The paper describes the use of Bayesian regression for building time series models and stacking different predictive models for time series. Using Bayesian regression for time series modeling with nonlinear trend was analyzed. This approach…

International comparisons of hierarchical time series data sets based on survey data, such as annual country-level estimates of school enrollment rates, can suffer from large amounts of missing data due to differing coverage of surveys…

One of the most important aspects of current expert systems technology is the ability to make causal inferences about the impact of new evidence. When the domain knowledge and problem knowledge are uncertain and incomplete Bayesian…

Hierarchical forecasting methods have been widely used to support aligned decision-making by providing coherent forecasts at different aggregation levels. Traditional hierarchical forecasting approaches, such as the bottom-up and top-down…

In this paper a new Bayesian model for sparse linear regression with a spatio-temporal structure is proposed. It incorporates the structural assumptions based on a hierarchical Gaussian process prior for spike and slab coefficients. We…

Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) is an unsupervised learning algorithm inspired by the features of the neocortex that can be used to continuously process stream data and detect anomalies, without requiring a large amount of data for…

Heterogeneous materials are often organized in a hierarchical manner, where a basic unit is repeated over multiple scales.The structure then acquires a self-similar pattern. Examples of such structure are found in various biological and…

Modern industrial systems are often subject to multiple failure modes, and their conditions are monitored by multiple sensors, generating multiple time-series signals. Additionally, time-to-failure data are commonly available. Accurately…

Large collections of time series data are commonly organized into structures with different levels of aggregation; examples include product and geographical groupings. It is often important to ensure that the forecasts are coherent so that…

Machine learning has recently made significant strides in reducing design cycle time for complex products. Ship design, which currently involves years long cycles and small batch production, could greatly benefit from these advancements. By…

To accomplish correct Bayesian inference from weak lensing shear data requires a complete statistical description of the data. The natural framework to do this is a Bayesian Hierarchical Model, which divides the chain of reasoning into…

Items in modern recommender systems are often organized in hierarchical structures. These hierarchical structures and the data within them provide valuable information for building personalized recommendation systems. In this paper, we…

Software is highly contextual. While there are cross-cutting `global' lessons, individual software projects exhibit many `local' properties. This data heterogeneity makes drawing local conclusions from global data dangerous. A key research…

Quantifying the public/private sector supply of contraceptive methods within countries is vital for effective and sustainable family planning (FP) delivery. In many low and middle-income countries (LMIC), measuring the contraceptive supply…

For situations that may benefit from information sharing among datasets, e.g., population-based SHM of similar structures, the hierarchical Bayesian approach provides a useful modelling structure. Hierarchical Bayesian models learn…

We examine the problem of making reconciled forecasts of large collections of related time series through a behavioural/Bayesian lens. Our approach explicitly acknowledges and exploits the 'connectedness' of the series in terms of…