相关论文: CoVaR with volatility clustering, heavy tails and …

The application of the standard static Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model for cryptocurrency risk management resulted in a systemic failure, evidenced by a 80.67% chance of loss in the 5% value-at-risk benchmark. This study addresses a…

We propose a general CoVaR framework that extends the traditional CoVaR by incorporating diverse expert views and information, such as asset moment characteristics, quantile insights, and perspectives on the relative loss distribution…

Recent developments in financial time series focus on modeling volatility across multiple assets or indices in a multivariate framework, accounting for potential interactions such as spillover effects. Furthermore, the increasing…

This thesis presents the Conditional Value-at-Risk concept and combines an analysis that covers its application as a risk measure and as a vector norm. For both areas of application the theory is revised in detail and examples are given to…

Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is a prominent risk measure in financial engineering, energy systems, and supply chain management. In these domains, Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a long-run CVaR criterion effectively mitigate cost…

Accurate computation of robust estimates for extremal quantiles of empirical distributions is an essential task for a wide range of applicative fields, including economic policymaking and the financial industry. Such estimates are…

Distributional reinforcement learning (RL) -- in which agents learn about all the possible long-term consequences of their actions, and not just the expected value -- is of great recent interest. One of the most important affordances of a…

Forecasting risk (as measured by quantiles) and systemic risk (as measured by Adrian and Brunnermeiers's (2016) CoVaR) is important in economics and finance. However, past research has shown that predictive relationships may be unstable…

We propose a distributionally robust index tracking model with the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) penalty. The model combines the idea of distributionally robust optimization for data uncertainty and the CVaR penalty to avoid large…

This paper proposes a modelling strategy to infer the impact of a covariate on the dependence structure of right-censored clustered event time data. The joint survival function of the event times is modelled using a parametric conditional…

The volatility of financial instruments is rarely constant, and usually varies over time. This creates a phenomenon called volatility clustering, where large price movements on one day are followed by similarly large movements on successive…

We propose a multivariate generative model to capture the complex dependence structure often encountered in business and financial data. Our model features heterogeneous and asymmetric tail dependence between all pairs of individual…

Risk measures are important key figures to measure the adequacy of the reserves of a company. The most common risk measures in practice are Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). Recently, quantum-based algorithms are…

In multivariate time series analysis, spectral coherence measures the linear dependency between two time series at different frequencies. However, real data applications often exhibit nonlinear dependency in the frequency domain.…

This book chapter illustrates how to apply extreme value statistics to financial time series data. Such data often exhibits strong serial dependence, which complicates assessment of tail risks. We discuss the two main approches to tail risk…

Dynamic quantiles, or Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) models, have been extensively studied at the individual level. However, efforts to estimate multiple dynamic quantiles jointly have been limited. Existing approaches…

Volatility forecasting plays an important role in the financial econometrics. Previous works in this regime are mainly based on applying various GARCH-type models. However, it is hard for people to choose a specific GARCH model which works…

Although quantile regression to calculate risk measures has been widely established in the financial literature, when considering data observed at mixed--frequency, an extension is needed. In this paper, a model is suggested built on a…

Robustness under perturbation and contamination is a prominent issue in statistical learning. We address the robust nonlinear regression based on the so-called interval conditional value-at-risk (In-CVaR), which is introduced to enhance…

Distortion risk measures are extensively used in finance and insurance applications because of their appealing properties. We present three methods to construct new class of distortion functions and measures. The approach involves the…