Tail Risk Analysis for Financial Time Series
Risk Management
2024-09-30 v1 Applications
Methodology
Abstract
This book chapter illustrates how to apply extreme value statistics to financial time series data. Such data often exhibits strong serial dependence, which complicates assessment of tail risks. We discuss the two main approches to tail risk estimation, unconditional and conditional quantile forecasting. We use the S&P 500 index as a case study to assess serial (extremal) dependence, perform an unconditional and conditional risk analysis, and apply backtesting methods. Additionally, the chapter explores the impact of serial dependence on multivariate tail dependence.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2409.18643,
title = {Tail Risk Analysis for Financial Time Series},
author = {Anna Kiriliouk and Chen Zhou},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2409.18643},
year = {2024}
}
Comments
Book chapter to appear in the Handbook on Statistics of Extremes (Chapman & Hall / CRC)