相关论文: Containing COVID-19 outbreaks using a Firewall
This study presents a new risk-averse multi-stage stochastic epidemics-ventilator-logistics compartmental model to address the resource allocation challenges of mitigating COVID-19. This epidemiological logistics model involves the…
Continuum models of epidemics do not take into account the underlying microscopic network structure of social connections. This drawback becomes extreme during quarantine when most people dramatically decrease their number of social…
We propose a new mathematical model to study the coinfection dynamics of COVID-19 and bacterial pneumonia. Our model includes two infection ways for pneumonia, corresponding to community-acquired and hospital-acquired infections. We show…
In order to investigate the effectiveness of lockdown and social distancing restrictions, which have been widely carried out as policy choice to curb the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic around the world, we formulate and discuss a staged and…
Firewalls have long been in use to protect local networks from threats of the larger Internet. Although firewalls are effective in preventing attacks initiated from outside, they are vulnerable to insider threats, e.g., malicious insiders…
The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of coronavirus outbreak caused by a novel virus called SARS-CoV-2. The sudden explosion and uncontrolled worldwide spread of COVID-19 show the limitations of existing healthcare systems in timely…
Epidemic outbreaks pose significant challenges to public health and socio-economic stability, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of disease transmission dynamics and effective control strategies. This article discusses the…
There have been several documented outbreaks of COVID-19 associated with vocalization, either by speech or by singing, in indoor confined spaces. Here, we model the risk of in-room airborne disease transmission via expiratory particle…
The COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as a global public health crisis. To make decisions about mitigation strategies and to understand the disease dynamics, policy makers and epidemiologists must know how the disease is spreading in their…
We propose two stochastic models for the Coronavirus pandemic. The statistical properties of the models, in particular the correlation functions and the probability density function, have duly been computed. Our models, which generalises a…
Widespread growth signatures in COVID-19 confirmed case counts are reported, with sharp transitions between three distinct dynamical regimes (exponential, superlinear and sublinear). Through analytical and numerical analysis, a novel…
Within-host models of COVID-19 infection dynamics enable the merits of different forms of antiviral therapy to be assessed in individual patients. A stochastic agent-based model of COVID-19 intracellular dynamics is introduced here, that…
We consider the spread of epidemics in technological and social networks. How do people react? Does awareness and cautious behavior help? We analyze these questions and present a dynamic model to describe the movement of individuals and/or…
Vaccination campaigns have saved thousands of lives, reaching the farthest places in the world. These campaigns have required substantial investments and accurate coordination between several actors within the vaccine supply chain. Despite…
Social units, such as households and schools, can play an important role in controlling epidemic outbreaks. In this work, we study an epidemic model with a prompt quarantine measure on networks with cliques (a $clique$ is a fully connected…
Some ideas are presented about the physical motivation of the apparent capacity of generalized logistic equations to describe the outbreak of the COVID-19 infection, and in general of quite many other epidemics. The main focuses here are:…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been ongoing for around 3 years, and has infected over 750 million people and caused over 6 million deaths worldwide at the time of writing. Throughout the pandemic, several strategies…
The paper presents an algorithm for syndromic surveillance of an epidemic outbreak formulated in the context of stochastic nonlinear filtering. The dynamics of the epidemic is modeled using a generalized compartmental epidemiological model…
I employ a simple mathematical model of an epidemic process to evaluate how four basic quantities: the reproduction number (R), the numbers of sensitive (S) and infectious individuals(I), and total community size (N) affect strategies to…
We argue that frequent sampling of the fraction of infected people (either by random testing or by analysis of sewage water), is central to managing the COVID-19 pandemic because it both measures in real time the key variable controlled by…