相关论文: Interacting Regional Policies in Containing a Dise…
In this work, the spread of a contagious disease on a society where the individuals may take precautions is modeled. The primary assumption is that the infected individuals transmit the infection to the susceptible members of the community…
Recent re-opening policies in the US, following a period of social distancing measures, introduced a significant increase in daily COVID-19 infections, calling for a roll-back or substantial revisiting of these policies in many states. The…
We study first order necessary conditions for an optimal control problem of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model with limitations on the duration of the quarantine. The control is done by means of the reproduction number, i.e., the…
Infectious disease modeling is used to forecast epidemics and assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies. Although the core assumption of mass-action models of homogeneously mixed population is often implausible, they are…
Discovering and isolating infected individuals is a cornerstone of epidemic control. Because many infectious diseases spread through close contacts, contact tracing is a key tool for case discovery and control. However, although contact…
From pathogens and computer viruses to genes and memes, contagion models have found widespread utility across the natural and social sciences. Despite their success and breadth of adoption, the approach and structure of these models remain…
To mitigate the impact of the pandemic, several measures include lockdowns, rapid vaccination programs, school closures, and economic stimulus. These interventions can have positive or unintended negative consequences. Current research to…
When an infection spreads in a community, an individual's probability of becoming infected depends on both her susceptibility and exposure to the contagion through contact with others. While one often has knowledge regarding an individual's…
Understanding the impact of network clustering and small-world properties on epidemic spread can be crucial in developing effective strategies for managing and controlling infectious diseases. Particularly in this work, we study the impact…
Diseases and other contagion phenomena in nature and society can interact asymmetrically, such that one can benefit from the other, which in turn impairs the first, in analogy with predator-prey systems. Here, we consider two models for…
Protecting interventions of many types (both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical) can be deployed against the spreading of a communicable disease, as the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically shown. Here we investigate in detail…
This paper investigates the case of interference, when a unit's treatment also affects other units' outcome. When interference is at work, policy evaluation mostly relies on the use of randomized experiments under cluster interference and…
The course of an epidemic is not only shaped by infection transmission over face-to-face contacts, but also by preventive behaviour caused by risk perception and social interactions. This study explores the dynamics of coupled awareness and…
Contagion, a concept from epidemiology, has long been used to characterize social influence on people's behavior and affective (emotional) states. While it has revealed many useful insights, it is not clear whether the contagion metaphor is…
Human social networks are inherently multiplex, comprising overlapping layers of relationships. Different layers may have distinct structural properties and interpersonal dynamics, but also may interact to form complex interdependent…
Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…
Understanding the interplay between human behavioral phenomena and infectious disease dynamics has been one of the central challenges of mathematical epidemiology. However, socio-cognitive processes critical for the initiation of desired…
The annual occurrence of many infectious diseases remains a constant burden to public health systems. The seasonal patterns in respiratory disease incidence observed in temperate regions have been attributed to the impact of environmental…
We analyze an approach to managing the COVID-19 pandemic without shutting down the economy while staying within the capacity of the healthcare system. We base our analysis on a detailed heterogeneous epidemiological model, which takes into…
Recent years have seen increasing efforts to forecast infectious disease burdens, with a primary goal being to help public health workers make informed policy decisions. However, there has only been limited discussion of how predominant…