相关论文: Finding Reproduction Numbers for Epidemic Models &…
The well-known Linear Chain Trick (LCT) allows modelers to derive mean field ODEs that assume gamma (Erlang) distributed passage times, by transitioning individuals sequentially through a chain of sub-states. The time spent in these states…
Ordinary differential equations (ODE) models have a wide variety of applications in the fields of mathematics, statistics, and the sciences. Though they are widely used, these models are sometimes viewed as inflexible with respect to the…
The basic reproduction number ($R_0$) is an epidemiological metric that represents the average number of new infections caused by a single infectious individual in a completely susceptible population. The methodology for calculating this…
Mathematical modelers have long known of a "rule of thumb" referred to as the Linear Chain Trick (LCT; aka the Gamma Chain Trick): a technique used to construct mean field ODE models from continuous-time stochastic state transition models…
In order to simulate the spread of infectious diseases, many epidemiological models use systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to describe the underlying dynamics. These models incorporate the implicit assumption, that the stay…
In this paper, we introduce a general numerical method to approximate the reproduction numbers of a large class of multi-group, age-structured, population models with a finite age span. To provide complete flexibility in the definition of…
The effective reproduction number, R(t), is a central point in the study of infectious diseases. It establishes in an explicit way the extent of an epidemic spread process in a population. The current estimation methods for the time…
We propose a novel approach to approximate the basic reproduction number $R_0$ as spectral radius of the Next-Generation Operator in time-periodic population models by characterizing the latter via evolution semigroups. Once birth/infection…
In this paper we consider epidemic models of directly transmissible SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) and SEIR (with an additional latent class) infections in fully-susceptible populations with a social structure, consisting…
Reproduction numbers are widely used for the estimation and prediction of epidemic spreading processes over networks. However, reproduction numbers do not enable estimation and prediction in individual communities within networks, and they…
We consider a single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number $\mathcal{R}(t)$. We discuss the estimation of the underlying SIR parameters with a…
Accurate epidemic forecasting requires models that account for the layered and heterogeneous nature of real social interactions. The basic reproduction number $\mathcal R_0$ calculated from models that assume homogeneous mixing or…
Basic and instantaneous reproduction numbers, "R" _"0" and "R" _"t" , are important metrics to assess progress of an epidemic and effectiveness of preventative interventions undertaken, and also to estimate coverage needed for vaccination.…
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number…
The time-dependent reproduction number Rt can be used to track pathogen transmission and to assess the efficacy of interventions. This quantity can be estimated by fitting renewal equation models to time series of infectious disease case…
We consider a family of periodic SEIRS epidemic models with a fairly general incidence rate and it is shown the basic reproduction number determines the global dynamics of the models and it is a threshold parameter for persistence.…
This work provides a geometric version of the next-generation matrix method for obtaining the basic reproduction number of an epidemiological model. We exhibit a certain correspondence between any system of ODEs and Petri nets. We observe…
As widely known, the basic reproduction number plays a key role in weighing birth/infection and death/recovery processes in several models of population dynamics. In this general setting, its characterization as the spectral radius of next…
Epidemic models are a valuable tool in the decision making process. Once a mathematical model for an epidemics has been established, the very next step is calculating a mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number, $R_0$, which…
A basic reproduction number, $R_0$, is a concept encountered frequently in the study of ecological and epidemiological models. It is routinely used to determine the stability of an extinction or a disease-free fixed point or steady state.…