相关论文: Dati Covid 2019 e legge di Benford

Currently, novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a big threat to global health. The rapid spread of the virus has created pandemic, and countries all over the world are struggling with a surge in COVID-19 infected cases. There are no…

Since the beginning of March 2020, the cumulative numbers of cases of infection with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in Germany have been reported on a daily basis. The reports originate from national laws, according to which positive test…

The objective of this work is to predict the spread of COVID-19 starting from observed data, using a forecast method inspired by probabilistic weather prediction systems operational today. Results show that this method works well for China:…

In this work, we study the causal relations among German regions in terms of the spread of Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic, taking into account the restriction policies that were applied by the different federal states. We…

Understanding Covid-19 lethality and its variation from country to country is essential for supporting governments in the choice of appropriate strategies. Adopting correct indicators to monitor the lethality of the infection in the course…

At the end of 2019, the latest novel coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 emerged as a significant acute respiratory disease that has become a global pandemic. Countries like Brazil have had difficulty in dealing with the virus due to the high…

An urgent problem in controlling COVID-19 spreading is to understand the role of undocumented infection. We develop a five-state model for COVID-19, taking into account the unique features of the novel coronavirus, with key parameters…

Benford's law describes a common phenomenon among many naturally occurring data sets and distributions in which the leading digits of the data are distributed with the probability of a first digit of $d$ base $B$ being…

In this paper, we search whether the Benford's law is applicable to monitor daily changes in sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS) quotes, which are acknowledged to be complex systems of economic content. This test is of paramount importance…

The phenomenological mathematical model of COVID-19 spreading is proposed for large countries with geographical differentiation of population density. According to the model COVID-19 spreading takes the form of several spatio-temporal waves…

In this note we analyze the temporal dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in China, Italy and France in the time window $22/01-09/03/2020$. A first analysis of simple day-lag maps points to some universality in the epidemic…

In this paper, we examine cross-country differences, in terms of the age distribution of symptomatic cases, hospitalizations, intensive care unit (ICU) cases, and fatalities due to the novel COVID-19. By calculating conditional…

The dataset described in this paper contains daily data about COVID-19 cases that occurred in Italy over the period from Jan. 28, 2020 to March 20, 2021, divided into ten age classes of the population, the first class being 0-9 years, the…

A fractional compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease is proposed. Special focus has been done on the transmissibility of super-spreaders individuals. Numerical simulations are shown for data of Galicia,…

To evaluate the effectiveness of the containment on the epidemic spreading of the new Coronavirus disease 2019, we carry on an analysis of the time evolution of the infection in a selected number of different Countries, by considering…

Benford's law is a statistical inference to predict the frequency of significant digits in naturally occurring numerical databases. In such databases this law predicts a higher occurrence of the digit 1 in the most significant place and…

In this paper, we will see that the proportion of d as leading digit, d $\in$ 1, 9, in data (obtained thanks to the hereunder developed model) is more likely to follow a law whose probability distribution is determined by a specific upper…

A simple method to derive parametric analytical extensions of Benford's law for first digits of numerical data is proposed. Two generalized Benford distributions are considered, namely the two-sided power Benford distribution and the new…

The new corona virus disease -- COVID-2019 -- is rapidly spreading through the world. The availability of unbiased timely statistics of trends in disease events are a key to effective responses. But due to reporting delays, the most…

Benford's Law states that the frequency of first digits of numbers in naturally occurring systems is not evenly distributed. Numbers beginning with a 1 occur roughly 30\% of the time, and are six times more common than numbers beginning…