相关论文: Analyzing Cause-Specific Mortality Trends using Co…

The significance of mortality modeling extends across multiple research areas, ranging from life insurance valuation to optimal lifetime decision-making. Existing approaches, such as mortality laws and factor-based models, often fall short…

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, empirical data have revealed that large-scale health crises not only cause immediate disruptions in mortality dynamics but also have persistent effects that may last for several years. Existing…

Existing mortality forecasting methods focus on age-specific mortality rates, which lie in an unconstrained space and overlook the distributional nature of life-table death counts. Few studies have developed and compared forecasting methods…

Cause-of-death data is fundamental for understanding population health trends and inequalities as well as designing and evaluating public health interventions. A significant proportion of global deaths, particularly in low- and…

Globally, the incidence of heart failure is increasing, and its principal treatment involves drug therapy. However, widespread non-adherence to therapies is prevalent among heart failure patients and often results in worsening health…

This study presents a framework for high-resolution mortality simulations tailored to insured and general populations. Due to the scarcity of detailed demographic-specific mortality data, we leverage Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) and…

Like density functions, period life-table death counts are nonnegative and have a constrained integral, and thus live in a constrained nonlinear space. Implementing established modelling and forecasting methods without obeying these…

To analyze and project age-specific mortality or morbidity rates age-period-cohort (APC) models are very popular. Bayesian approaches facilitate estimation and improve predictions by assigning smoothing priors to age, period and cohort…

Diverse analysis approaches have been proposed to distinguish data missing due to death from nonresponse, and to summarize trajectories of longitudinal data truncated by death. We demonstrate how these analysis approaches arise from…

As populations age, the rise of multimorbidity poses a significant healthcare challenge. However, our ability to quantitatively forecast the progression of multimorbidity remains limited. Leveraging a nationwide dataset comprising…

In this study, we introduce a novel and comprehensive extension of a Bayesian spatio-temporal disease mapping model that explicitly accounts for gender-specific effects of meteorological exposures. Leveraging fine-scale weekly mortality and…

In the evolving world, we require more additionally the young era to flourish and evolve into developed land. Most of the population all around the world are unaware of the complications involved in the routine they follow while they are…

In this work we present a spatial approach to model and investigate mortality data referenced over a Lexis structure. We decompose the force of mortality into two interpretable components: a Markov random field, smooth with respect to time,…

We introduce a statistical method for modeling and forecasting functional panel data represented by multiple densities. Density functions are nonnegative and have a constrained integral and thus do not constitute a linear vector space. We…

Recently we developed a new framework in Hirz et al (2015) to model stochastic mortality using extended CreditRisk$^+$ methodology which is very different from traditional time series methods used for mortality modelling previously. In this…

The improvement of mortality projection is a pivotal topic in the diverse branches related to insurance, demography, and public policy. Motivated by the thread of Lee-Carter related models, we propose a Bayesian model to estimate and…

There have been significant efforts devoted to solving the longevity risk given that a continuous growth in population ageing has become a severe issue for many developed countries over the past few decades. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD)…

The determination of the shapes of mortality curves, the estimation and projection of mortality patterns over time, and the investigation of differences in mortality patterns across different small underdeveloped populations have received…

In order to implement disease-specific interventions in young age groups, policy makers in low- and middle-income countries require timely and accurate estimates of age- and cause-specific child mortality. High quality data is not available…

In low-resource settings where vital registration of death is not routine it is often of critical interest to determine and study the cause of death (COD) for individuals and the cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) for populations.…