相关论文: Renormalisation Group approach to pandemics as a t…

The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients of COVID-19 epidemic, including the effect of demographic…

Compartmental models are popular in the mathematics of epidemiology for their simplicity and wide range of applications. Although they are typically solved as initial value problems for a system of ordinary differential equations, the…

A class of multiple-timescale asymptotic solutions to the equations of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model is presented for the case of high basic reproduction number, with the inverse of the latter employed as the expansion…

The purpose of this work is to give a contribution to the understanding of the COVID-19 contagion in Italy. To this end, we developed a modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the contagion, and we used official data of the…

In this research, we develop a framework to analyze the interaction between the economy and the Covid-19 pandemic using an extension of SIR epidemic model. At the outset, we assume there are two health related investments including general…

I estimate the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The transmission rate is heterogeneous across countries and far exceeds the recovery rate, which enables a fast spread. In the…

We study a symmetric two-disease SIR co-infection model on networks in which co-infected individuals recover at a rate distinct from that of single infections. The model explicitly represents all co-infection states and features absorbing…

A study of changes in the transmission of a disease, in particular, a new disease like COVID-19, requires very flexible models which can capture, among others, the effects of non-pharmacological and pharmacological measures, changes in…

The COVID-19 pandemic constitutes one of the largest threats in recent decades to the health and economic welfare of populations globally. In this paper, we analyze different types of policy measures designed to fight the spread of the…

We consider the SIR model and study the first time the number of infected individuals begins to decrease and the first time this population is below a given threshold. We interpret these times as functions of the initial susceptible and…

A mathematical model was developed describing the dynamic of the COVID-19 virus over a population considering that the infected can either be symptomatic or not. The model was calibrated using data on the confirmed cases and death from…

For the description of a pandemic mathematical models could be interesting. Both for physicians and politicians as a base for decisions to treat the disease. The responsible estimation of parameters is a main issue of mathematical pandemic…

In contrast to the common assumption in epidemic models that the rate of infection between individuals is constant, in reality, an individual's viral load determines their infectiousness. We compare the average and individual reproductive…

We propose a novel model-based clustering approach for samples of time series. We assume as a unique commonality that two observations belong to the same group if structural changes in their behaviours happen at the same time. We resort to…

We used Bayesian model inversion to estimate epidemic parameters from the reported case and death rates from seven countries using data from late January 2020 to April 5th 2020. Two distinct generative model types were employed: first a…

With the covid-19 pandemic still ongoing and an enormous amount of test data available, the lessons learned over the last two years need to be developed to a point where they can provide understanding for tackling new variants and future…

The mobility patterns of individuals in China during the early outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic exhibit reversible changes -- in many regions, the mobility first decreased significantly and later restored. Based on this observation, here…

To combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the world has vaccination, plasma therapy, herd immunity, and epidemiological interventions as few possible options. The COVID-19 vaccine development is underway and it may take a…

Mathematical models of infectious diseases exhibit robust dynamics such as stable endemic or a disease-free equilibrium, or convergence of the solutions to periodic epidemic waves. The present work shows that the accuracy of such dynamics…

In this paper, we propose a new real-time differential virus transmission model, which can give more accurate and robust short-term predictions of COVID-19 transmitted infectious disease with benefits of near-term trend projection.…