相关论文: Conditional tail risk expectations for location-sc…

For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…

Considerable literature has been devoted to developing statistical inferential results for risk measures, especially for those that are of the form of L-functionals. However, practical and theoretical considerations have highlighted quite a…

We study the consistency and weak convergence of the conditional tail function and conditional Hill estimators under broad dependence assumptions for a heavy-tailed response sequence and a covariate sequence. Consistency is established…

In some fields of applications of stable distributions, especially in economics, it appears, that data have distributions similar to stable in a large region, but do not have such heavy tails. Our aim in this note is to propose several…

Extreme weather events, like flooding, disrupt urban transportation networks by reducing speeds and capacities, and by closing roadways. These hazards create regime-dependent uncertainty in link performance and travel-time distribution…

The metalog distributions represent a convenient way to approach many practical applications. Their distinctive feature is simple closed-form expressions for quantile functions. This paper contributes to further development of the metalog…

We propose an analytical approach to the computation of tail probabilities of compound distributions whose individual components have heavy tails. Our approach is based on the contour integration method, and gives rise to a representation…

This article proposes a novel Bayesian multivariate quantile regression to forecast the tail behavior of energy commodities, where the homoskedasticity assumption is relaxed to allow for time-varying volatility. In particular, we exploit…

We extend some known results relating the distribution tails of a continuous local martingale supremum and its quadratic variation to the case of locally square integrable martingales with bounded jumps. The predictable and optional…

In this paper, we introduce reduced-bias estimators for the estimation of the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution. This is achieved through the use of a regularised weighted least squares with an exponential regression model for…

We propose a Gaussian-copula-based framework that learns deal-level dependence directly from observed joint success frequencies across founder, geography, and market attributes. Holding marginal deal success probabilities fixed, deal-level…

There is given a method for estimation of a probability distribution tail in terms of characteristic function. Key words: characteristic function; tail of a distribution.

Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy tail behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been…

The present article is devoted to the semi-parametric estimation of multivariate expectiles for extreme levels. The considered multivariate risk measures also include the possible conditioning with respect to a functional covariate,…

Entropic tilting (ET) is a Bayesian decision-analytic method for constraining distributions to satisfy defined targets or bounds for sets of expectations. This report recapitulates the foundations and basic theory of ET for conditioning…

We present a novel procedure for scaling relatively high frequency tail probability and quantile estimates for the conditional distribution of returns.

Accounting for model uncertainty in risk management and option pricing leads to infinite dimensional optimization problems which are both analytically and numerically intractable. In this article we study when this hurdle can be overcome…

The authors announce a general tail estimate, called a decoupling inequality, for a symmetrized sum of non-linear $k$-correlations of $n>k$ independent random variables.

Based on a faithful representation of the heavy tail multivariate distribution of asset returns introduced previously (Sornette et al., 1998, 1999) that we extend to the case of asymmetric return distributions, we generalize the return-risk…

Count data are omnipresent in many applied fields, often with overdispersion. With mixtures of Poisson distributions representing an elegant and appealing modelling strategy, we focus here on how the tail behaviour of the mixing…