相关论文: A parsimonious model for spatial transmission and …

The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is…

We develop a spatially dependent generalisation to the Wells-Riley model and its extensions applied to COVID-19, that determines the infection risk due to airborne transmission of viruses. We assume that the concentration of infectious…

Our recent experience with the COVID-19 pandemic amply shows that spatial effects like the mobility of agents and average interpersonal distance, together with the adaptation of agents, are very important in deciding the outcome of epidemic…

This paper is concerned with nonlinear modeling and analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic currently ravaging the planet. There are two objectives: to arrive at an appropriate model that captures the collected data faithfully, and to use that as…

While COVID-19 is rapidly propagating around the globe, the need for providing real-time forecasts of the epidemics pushes fits of dynamical and statistical models to available data beyond their capabilities. Here we focus on statistical…

The COVID-19 pandemic has emphasized the need for a robust understanding of epidemic models. Current models of epidemics are classified as either mechanistic or non-mechanistic: mechanistic models make explicit assumptions on the dynamics…

The emergence of Covid-19 requires new effective tools for epidemiological surveillance. Spatio-temporal disease mapping models, which allow dealing with highly disaggregated spatial and temporal units of analysis, are a priority in this…

We study the spread of Covid-19 across neighbourhoods of cities in the developing world and find that small numbers of neighbourhoods account for a majority of cases (k-index~0.7). We also find that the countrywide distribution of cases…

Currently, Brazil has one of the fastest increasing COVID-19 epidemics in the world, that has caused at least 94 thousand confirmed deaths until now. The city of Sao Paulo is particularly vulnerable because it is the most populous in the…

The goal of this article is to analyze some compartmental models specially designed to model the spread of a disease whose transmission has the same features as COVID-19. The major contributions of this article are: (1) Rigorously find…

Within a short period of time, COVID-19 grew into a world-wide pandemic. Transmission by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers rendered intervention and containment of the disease extremely challenging. Based on reported infection…

The outbreak and propagation of COVID-19 have posed a considerable challenge to modern society. In particular, the different restrictive actions taken by governments to prevent the spread of the virus have changed the way humans interact…

As a highly infectious respiratory disease, COVID-19 has become a pandemic that threatens global health. Without an effective treatment, non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as travel restrictions, have been widely promoted to mitigate…

We propose a detailed discrete-time model of COVID-19 epidemics coming in two flavours, mean-field and probabilistic. The main contribution lies in several extensions of the basic model that capture i) user mobility - distinguishing…

In this article, we develop a deterministic compartmental model including the spatio-temporal aspect and the wearing of masks by the general public for the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic. This model is based on the SIR model of Kermack and…

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 spreading, the number of studies on the epidemic models increased dramatically. It is important for policymakers to know how the disease will spread and what are the effects of the policies and…

I present three types of applications of generalized additive models (GAMs) to COVID-19 mortality rates in the US for the purpose of advancing methods to document inequities with respect to which communities suffered disproportionate…

We propose a compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease with special focus on the transmissibility of super-spreaders individuals. We compute the basic reproduction number threshold, we study the local stability…

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has progressed with varying degrees of intensity in individual countries, suggesting it is important to analyse factors that vary between them. We study measures of `population-weighted density', which capture…

This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, the SIRD model, to allow for time-varying parameters for real-time measurement and prediction of the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured…