相关论文: Modeling and measuring incurred claims risk liabil…

This paper considers an insurer with two collaborating business lines that must make three critical decisions: (1) dividend payout, (2) a combination of proportional and excess-of-loss reinsurance coverage, and (3) capital injection between…

In the paper we develop mathematical tools of quantile hedging in incomplete market. Those could be used for two significant applications: o calculating the \textbf{optimal capital requirement imposed by Solvency II} (Directive 2009/138/EC…

The EU Solvency II directive recommends insurance companies to pay more attention to the risk management methods. The sense of risk management is the ability to quantify risk and apply methods that reduce uncertainty. In life insurance, the…

Individual risk models need to capture possible correlations as failing to do so typically results in an underestimation of extreme quantiles of the aggregate loss. Such dependence modelling is particularly important for managing credit…

In this paper we study data from the yearly reports the four major Swedish non-life insurers have sent to the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (FSA). We aim at finding marginal distributions of, and dependence between, losses on the…

An insurance company, as a risk bearer, is exposed to the likelihood of running into ruin. This is the situation where the initial surplus falls below zero. There is the need to find the required start-up capital to hedge against…

We propose a novel probabilistic model to facilitate the learning of multivariate tail dependence of multiple financial assets. Our method allows one to construct from known random vectors, e.g., standard normal, sophisticated joint…

This article presents a stochastic framework to quantify the biometric risk of an insurance portfolio in solvency regimes such as Solvency II or the Swiss Solvency Test (SST). The main difficulty in this context constitutes in the proper…

In this paper, we develop a method to model and estimate several, _dependent_ count processes, using granular data. Specifically, we develop a multivariate Cox process with shot noise intensities to jointly model the arrival process of…

Value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are two commonly utilized metrics for quantifying financial risk. In this study, we review the widely employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. These…

The paper deals with a generalization of the risk model with stochastic premiums where dependence structures between claim sizes and inter-claim times as well as premium sizes and inter-premium times are modeled by…

Accurate forecasting of volatility and return quantiles is essential for evaluating financial tail risks such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall. This study proposes an extension of the traditional stochastic volatility model, termed…

This paper studies an $\alpha$-robust utility maximization problem where an investor faces an intractable claim -- an exogenous contingent claim with known marginal distribution but unspecified dependence structure with financial market…

Surrender poses one of the major risks to life insurance and a sound modeling of its true probability has direct implication on the risk capital demanded by the Solvency II directive. We add to the existing literature by performing…

Systemic risk refers to the risk that the financial system is susceptible to failures due to the characteristics of the system itself. The tremendous cost of systemic risk requires the design and implementation of tools for the efficient…

This paper considers the problem of measuring the credit risk in portfolios of loans, bonds, and other instruments subject to possible default under multi-factor models. Due to the amount of the portfolio, the heterogeneous effect of…

A novel forecast combination and weighted quantile based tail-risk forecasting framework is proposed, aiming to reduce the impact of modelling uncertainty in tail-risk forecasting. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation…

The upper tail of a claim size distribution of a property line of business is frequently modelled by Pareto distribution. However, the upper tail does not need to be Pareto distributed, extraordinary shapes are possible. Here, the…

The paper introduces an approach to telematics devices data application in automotive insurance. We conduct a comparative analysis of different types of devices that collect information on vehicle utilization and driving style of its…

Currently, legal requirements demand that insurance companies increase their emphasis on monitoring the risks linked to the underwriting and asset management activities. Regarding underwriting risks, the main uncertainties that insurers…