相关论文: A message-passing approach to epidemic tracing and…

The massive employment of computational models in network epidemiology calls for the development of improved inference methods for epidemic forecast. For simple compartment models, such as the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, Belief…

Tracing potentially infected contacts of confirmed cases is important when fighting outbreaks of many infectious diseases. The COVID-19 pandemic has motivated researchers to examine how different contact tracing strategies compare in terms…

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a unique challenge for the world to find solutions, ranging from vaccines to ICT solutions to slow down the virus spreading. Due to the highly contagious nature of the virus, social distancing is one…

Non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as contact tracing and social distancing, are critical for controlling epidemic outbreaks, yet their dynamic interactions remain underexplored. We introduce a probabilistic framework to analyze the…

Global strategies to contain a pandemic, such as social distancing and protective measures, are designed to reduce the overall transmission rate between individuals. Despite such measures, essential institutions, including hospitals,…

A generalization of the standard susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) stochastic model for epidemics in sparse random networks is introduced which incorporates contact tracing in addition to random screening. We propose a deterministic…

Epidemic processes are common out-of-equilibrium phenomena of broad interdisciplinary interest. Recently, dynamic message-passing (DMP) has been proposed as an efficient algorithm for simulating epidemic models on networks, and in…

Effective contact tracing is crucial to contain epidemic spreading without disrupting societal activities especially in the present time of coexistence with a pandemic outbreak. Large gatherings play a key role, potentially favouring…

We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemics, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an…

With the COVID-19 pandemic, quarantines took place across the globe. In the aim of stopping or slowing the progression of the COVID-19 contamination, many countries have deployed a contact tracing system to notify persons that be in contact…

Spreading models capture key dynamics on networks, such as cascading failures in economic systems, (mis)information diffusion, and pathogen transmission. Here, we focus on design intervention problems -- for example, designing optimal…

The understanding of epidemics on networks has greatly benefited from the recent application of message-passing approaches, which allow to derive exact results for irreversible spreading (i.e. diseases with permanent acquired immunity) in…

Contact tracing is an effective tool in controlling the spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19. It involves digital monitoring and recording of physical proximity between people over time with a central and trusted authority, so…

Quarantining and contact tracing are popular ad hoc practices for mitigating epidemic outbreaks. However, few mathematical theories are currently available to asses the role of a network in the effectiveness of these practices. In this…

For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling…

We propose to utilize mobile phone technology as a vehicle for people to report their symptoms and to receive immediate feedback about the health services readily available, and for predicting spatial disease outbreak risk. Once symptoms…

Nowadays, one of the challenges we face when carrying out modeling of epidemic spreading is to develop methods to control disease transmission. In this article we study how the spreading of knowledge of a disease affects the propagation of…

In this paper, we present a simple method to integrate risk-contact data, obtained via digital contact monitoring (DCM) apps, in conventional compartmental transmission models. During the recent COVID-19 pandemic, many such data have been…

Smartphone-based contact-tracing applications are at the epicenter of the global fight against the Covid-19 pandemic. While governments and healthcare agencies are eager to mandate the deployment of such applications en-masse, they face…

The spread of certain diseases can be promoted, in some cases substantially, by prior infection with another disease. One example is that of HIV, whose immunosuppressant effects significantly increase the chances of infection with other…