相关论文: Failure of monotonicity in epidemic models
Mathematical models of infectious diseases, which are in principle analytically tractable, use two general approaches. The first approach, generally known as compartmental modeling, addresses the time evolution of disease propagation at the…
The statistics of outbreaks in a model for the propagation of meningococcal diseases is analyzed, taking into account the possibility that the population is fragmented into weakly connected patches. It is shown that, depending on the size…
The field of property testing of probability distributions, or distribution testing, aims to provide fast and (most likely) correct answers to questions pertaining to specific aspects of very large datasets. In this work, we consider a…
We present a detailed analytical and numerical study for the spreading of infections in complex population networks with acquired immunity. We show that the large connectivity fluctuations usually found in these networks strengthen…
We consider the extent to which we can learn from a completely randomized experiment whether all individuals have treatment effects that are weakly of the same sign, a condition we call monotonicity. From a classical sampling perspective,…
These notes describe stochastic epidemics in a homogenous community. Our main concern is stochastic compartmental models (i.e. models where each individual belongs to a compartment, which stands for its status regarding the epidemic under…
A compartment epidemic model for infectious disease spreading is investigated, where movement of individuals is governed by spatial diffusion. The model includes infection age of the infected individuals and assumes a logistic growth of the…
We study some simple models of disease transmission on small-world networks, in which either the probability of infection by a disease or the probability of its transmission is varied, or both. The resulting models display epidemic behavior…
The large-sample properties of likelihood-based statistical inference under mixture models have received much attention from statisticians. Although the consistency of the nonparametric MLE is regarded as a standard conclusion, many…
Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent…
We investigate the effects of risk perception in a simple model of epidemic spreading. We assume that the perception of the risk of being infected depends on the fraction of neighbors that are ill. The effect of this factor is to decrease…
The current survey paper concerns stochastic mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases. It starts with the simplest setting of a homogeneous population in which a transmittable disease spreads during a short outbreak.…
The current work deals with an epidemic model on the complete graph K_n on n vertices in a non-homogeneous setting, where the vertices may have distinct types. Different types differ in the probability of getting infected, and/or in the…
The long-term evolution of epidemic processes depends crucially on the structure of contact networks. As empirical evidence indicates that human populations exhibit strong community organization, we investigate here how such mesoscopic…
Epidemiological forecasting from surveillance data is a hard problem and hybridizing mechanistic compartmental models with neural models is a natural direction. The mechanistic structure helps keep trajectories epidemiologically plausible,…
In this paper we study some mathematical models describing evolution of population density and spread of epidemics in population systems in which spatial movement of individuals depends only on the departure and arrival locations and does…
We study failure rate monotonicity and generalized convex transform stochastic ordering properties of random variables, with a concern on applications. We are especially interested in the effect of a tail weight iteration procedure to…
A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…
Viruses constantly undergo mutations with genomic changes. The propagation of variants of viruses is an interesting problem. We perform numerical simulations of the microscopic epidemic model based on network theory for the spread of…
Research in epidemiology often focusses on designing interventions that result in the number of infected individuals asymptotically approaching zero, without considering that this number may peak at high values during transients. Recent…