相关论文: Mobility Based SIR Model For Pandemics -- With Cas…

The discovery of SARS-CoV-2, the responsible virus for the Covid-19 epidemic, has sparked a global health concern with many countries affected. Developing models that can interpret the epidemic and give common trend parameters are useful…

This article presents a new model to predict the evolution of infective diseases under uncertainty or low-quality information, just as it has happened in the initial scenario during the CoVid-19 spread in China and Europe. The model has…

Recently, the world has witnessed the most severe pandemic (COVID-19) in this century. Studies on epidemic prediction and simulation have received increasing attention. However, the current methods suffer from three issues. First, most of…

In the present article a mathematical model is proposed to research the current coronavirus outbreak (SARS-CoV-2) in Paraguay, describing the multiple transmission paths in the infection dynamics, following the susceptible, exposed,…

The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…

In this paper, we conduct mathematical and numerical analyses to address the following crucial questions for COVID-19: (Q1) Is it possible to contain COVID-19? (Q2) When will be the peak and the end of the epidemic? (Q3) How do the…

The relationship between pandemic and human mobility has received considerable attention from scholars, as it can provide an indication of how mobility patterns change in response to a public health crisis or whether reduced mobility…

We present a modelling framework for the spreading of epidemics on temporal networks from which both the individual-based and pair-based models can be recovered. The proposed temporal pair-based model that is systematically derived from…

We introduce the concept of epidemic-fitted wavelets which comprise, in particular, as special cases the number $I(t)$ of infectious individuals at time $t$ in classical SIR models and their derivatives. We present a novel method for…

This paper is concerned with nonlinear modeling and analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic currently ravaging the planet. There are two objectives: to arrive at an appropriate model that captures the collected data faithfully, and to use that as…

Epidemiological simulations as a method are used to better understand and predict the spreading of infectious diseases, for example of COVID-19. This paper presents an approach that combines person-centric data-driven human mobility…

Covid-19 is one of the most dreaded pandemics/epidemics in the world threatening the human population. The dynamics of this pandemic is quite complicated and prediction of pandemic states often fails. In this work, we study and correlate…

The SIR pandemic model suffers from an unrealistic assumption: The rate of removal from the infectious class of individuals is assumed to be proportional to the number of infectious individuals. This means that a change in the rate of…

In this paper we propose a data-driven model for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and use it to design optimal control strategies of human-mobility restrictions that both curb the epidemic and minimize the economic costs associated with…

We consider the control of the COVID-19 pandemic through a standard SIR compartmental model. This control is induced by the aggregation of individuals' decisions to limit their social interactions: when the epidemic is ongoing, an…

Faced with the 2020 SARS-CoV2 epidemic, public health officials have been seeking models that could be used to predict not only the number of new cases but also the levels of hospitalisation, critical care and deaths. In this paper we…

The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is applied in several countries to ascertain the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We consider discrete-time SEIR epidemic model in a closed system which does not…

The last three years have been an extraordinary time with the Covid-19 pandemic killing millions, affecting and distressing billions of people worldwide. Authorities took various measures such as turning school and work to remote and…

Genetic variations in the COVID-19 virus are one of the main causes of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in 2020 and 2021. In this article, we aim to introduce a new type of model, a system coupled with ordinary differential equations (ODEs),…

A plethora of prediction models of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic were proposed in the past. Prediction performances not only depend on the structure and features of the model, but also on its parametrization. Official databases are often biased due…