相关论文: Transitioning out of the Coronavirus Lockdown: A F…

Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed hierarchical network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population may be characterized by $H$ independent…

The importance of a strict quarantine has been widely debated during the COVID-19 epidemic even from the purely epidemiological point of view. One argument against strict lockdown measures is that once the strict quarantine is lifted, the…

Recommendations around epidemics tend to focus on individual behaviors, with much less efforts attempting to guide event cancellations and other collective behaviors since most models lack the higher-order structure necessary to describe…

Epidemic outbreaks pose significant challenges to public health and socio-economic stability, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of disease transmission dynamics and effective control strategies. This article discusses the…

We analyze an optimal control version of a simple SIR epidemiology model that includes a partially specified vaccination policy and takes into account fatigue from protracted application of social distancing measures. The model assumes…

The death toll for Covid-19 may be reduced by dividing the population into two classes, the vulnerable and the fit, with different lockdown regimes. Instead of one reproduction number there now are four parameters. These make it possible to…

As the COVID19 spreads across the world, prevention measures are becoming the essential weapons to combat the pandemic in the period of crisis. The lockdown measure is the most controversial one as it imposes an overwhelming impact on our…

Absent a drug or vaccine, containing epidemic outbreaks is achieved by means of social distancing, specifically mobility restrictions and lock-downs. Such measures impose a hurtful toll on the economy, and are difficult to sustain for…

We present a local spread model of disease transmission on a regular network and compare different control options ranging from treating the whole population to local control in a well-defined neighborhood of an infectious individual.…

Large-scale human social network structure is typically inferred from digital trace samples of online social media platforms or mobile communication data. Instead, here we investigate the social network structure of a complete population,…

The rapid transmission of the highly contagious novel coronavirus has been represented through several data-guided approaches across targeted geographies, in an attempt to understand when the pandemic will be under control and imposed…

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…

Analysis of policies for managing epidemics require simultaneously an economic and epidemiological perspective. We adopt a cost-of-policy framework to model both the virus spread and the cost of handling the pandemic. Because it is harder…

We find UK 'local lockdowns' of cities and small regions, focused on limiting how many people a household can interact with and in what settings, are effective in turning the tide on rising positive COVID-19 cases. Yet, by focusing on…

One of the critical measures to control infectious diseases is a lockdown. Once past the lockdown stage in many parts of the world, the crucial question now concerns the effects of relaxing the lockdown and finding the best ways to…

During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have tried to keep their territories safe by isolating themselves from others, limiting non-essential travel and imposing mandatory quarantines for travelers. While large-scale quarantine has been…

Given multiple new COVID-19 variants are continuously emerging, non-pharmaceutical interventions are still primary control strategies to curb the further spread of coronavirus. However, implementing strict interventions over extended…

Continuum models of epidemics do not take into account the underlying microscopic network structure of social connections. This drawback becomes extreme during quarantine when most people dramatically decrease their number of social…

We present a simple and versatile method for calculating the maximum capacity of public spaces constrained to social distancing, following the recommended measures of the WHO due to the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. This method assumes a…

In order to prevent the spread of COVID-19, governments have often required regional or national lockdowns, which have caused extensive economic stagnation over broad areas as the shock of the lockdowns has diffused to other regions through…