相关论文: Tempered Pareto-type modelling using Weibull distr…

This paper presents a hierarchical Bayesian approach to the estimation of components' reliability (survival) using a Weibull model for each of them. The proposed method can be used to estimation with general survival censored data, because…

In this short note, we derive a new bias adjusted maximum likelihood estimate for the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution with complete data and type I censored data. The proposed estimate of the shape parameter is significantly…

We study the large-time asymptotic of renewal-reward processes with a heavy-tailed waiting time distribution. It is known that the heavy tail of the distribution produces an extremely slow dynamics, resulting in a singular large deviation…

Accurately quantifying tail risks-rare but high-impact events such as financial crashes or extreme weather-is a central challenge in risk management, with serially dependent data. We develop a Bayesian framework based on the Generalized…

Risk measures such as Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) focus on extreme losses, where scarce tail data makes model error unavoidable. To hedge misspecification, one evaluates worst-case tail risk over an ambiguity set. Using Extreme Value…

In this paper, we consider the problem of the estimation of a Weibull tail-coefficient. In particular, we propose a regression model, from which we derive a bias-reduced estimator. This estimator is based on a least-squares approach. The…

In this paper we study bayesian analysis of Modified Weibull distribution under progressively censored competing risk model. This study is made for progressively censored data. We use deterministic scan Gibbs sampling combined with slice…

Motivated by the empirical observation of power-law distributions in the credits (e.g., ``likes'') of viral posts in social media, we introduce a high-dimensional tail index regression model and propose methods for estimation and inference…

Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…

Extreme value theory has constructed asymptotic properties of the sample maximum. This study concerns probability distribution estimation of the sample maximum. The traditional approach is parametric fitting to the limiting distribution --…

The properties of Maximum Likelihood estimator in mixed causal and noncausal models with a generalized Student's t error process are reviewed. Several known existing methods are typically not applicable in the heavy-tailed framework. To…

This paper develops a Pareto scale-inflated outlier model. This model is intended for use when data from some standard Pareto distribution of interest is suspected to have been contaminated with a relatively small number of outliers from a…

In this paper we consider the semi-parametric estimation of extreme quantiles of a right heavy-tail model. We propose a new Log Probability Weighted Moment estimator for extreme quantiles, which is obtained from the estimators of the shape…

The Weibull distribution is a very applicable model for the lifetime data. In this paper, we have investigated inference on the parameters of Weibull distribution based on record values. We first propose a simple and exact test and a…

To achieve a greater general flexibility for modeling heavy-tailed bounded responses, a beta scale mixture model is proposed. Each member of the family is obtained by multiplying the scale parameter of the conditional beta distribution by a…

The classical modeling of spatial extremes relies on asymptotic models (i.e., max-stable processes or $r$-Pareto processes) for block maxima or peaks over high thresholds, respectively. However, at finite levels, empirical evidence often…

The Weibull distribution is a very applicable model for the lifetime data. For inference about two Weibull distributions using records, the shape parameters of the distributions are usually considered equal. However, there is not an…

A generalization of the generalized inverse Weibull distribution so-called transmuted generalized inverse Weibull dis- tribution is proposed and studied. We will use the quadratic rank transmutation map (QRTM) in order to generate a…

We introduce a trimmed version of the Hill estimator for the index of a heavy-tailed distribution, which is robust to perturbations in the extreme order statistics. In the ideal Pareto setting, the estimator is essentially finite-sample…

While the estimation of risk is an important question in the daily business of banking and insurance, many existing plug-in estimation procedures suffer from an unnecessary bias. This often leads to the underestimation of risk and…