相关论文: Metropolitan-scale COVID-19 outbreaks: how similar…

During the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the causative pathogen of COVID-19. Among those NPIs, quarantine measures were…

New York City has been recognized as the world's epicenter of the novel Coronavirus pandemic. To identify the key inherent factors that are highly correlated to the Increase Rate of COVID-19 new cases in NYC, we propose an unsupervised…

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted lives and economies across the globe, leading to many deaths. While vaccination is an important intervention, its roll-out is slow and unequal across the globe. Therefore, extensive testing still remains…

To mitigate the spread of COVID-19 pandemic, decision-makers and public authorities have announced various non-pharmaceutical policies. Analyzing the causal impact of these policies in reducing the spread of COVID-19 is important for future…

Background. Forecasting the time of forthcoming pandemic reduces the impact of diseases by taking precautionary steps such as public health messaging and raising the consciousness of doctors. With the continuous and rapid increase in the…

We identify the effectiveness of social distancing policies in reducing the transmission of the COVID-19 spread. We build a model that measures the relative frequency and geographic distribution of the virus growth rate and provides…

The new coronavirus known as COVID-19 is spread world-wide since December 2019. Without any vaccination or medicine, the means of controlling it are limited to quarantine and social distancing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation…

This article explores the territorial differences in the onset and spread of COVID-19 and the excess mortality associated with the pandemic, across the European NUTS3 regions and US counties. Both in Europe and in the US, the pandemic…

An outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus is ongoing from December 2019. As of July 22, 2020, it has caused an epidemic outbreak with more than 15 million confirmed infections and above 6 hundred thousand reported…

Typically, mathematical simulation studies on COVID-19 pandemic forecasting are based on deterministic differential equations which assume that both the number ($n$) of individuals in various epidemiological classes and the time ($t$) on…

In this work, we study the finite-population behaviour of the Reed-Frost epidemic model. Our analysis relies on the exact expression for the final epidemic size, replaced by Monte Carlo simulations in cases where the exact formula becomes…

We portray the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic during the crisis of March-April 2020 in the Paris area, by analyzing the medical emergency calls received by the EMS of the four central departments of this area (Centre 15 of SAMU 75, 92,…

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has shown that when the reproduction number is high and there are no proper measurements in place, the number of infected people can increase dramatically in a short time, producing a phenomenon that many…

The initial surge of the COVID-19 pandemic hit Guatemala on March 2020. On a country scale, the epidemic has undergone a fairly well-known and distinguishable initial phase, reaching its peak on mid July 2020. However, the detailed picture…

In this paper, we develop an extension of standard epidemiological models, suitable for COVID-19. This extension incorporates the transmission due to pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic carriers of the virus. Furthermore, this model also…

Mathematical models are a powerful tool to study infectious disease dynamics and intervention strategies against them in social systems. However, due to their detailed implementation and steep computational requirements, practitioners and…

Background: By the beginning of December 2020, some vaccines against COVID-19 already presented efficacy and security, which qualify them to be used in mass vaccination campaigns. Thus, setting up strategies of vaccination became crucial to…

The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reached over 1.3 million in Ontario, Canada by June 4, 2022. The continued spread of the virus underlying COVID-19 has been spurred by the emergence of variants since the initial outbreak in December,…

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…

COVID-19 has been a public health emergency of international concern since early 2020. Reliable forecasting is critical to diminish the impact of this disease. To date, a large number of different forecasting models have been proposed,…