相关论文: Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting
This paper develops new techniques to bound distributional treatment effect parameters that depend on the joint distribution of potential outcomes -- an object not identified by standard identifying assumptions such as selection on…
Last year we argued that if slow-roll inflation followed the decay of a false vacuum in a large landscape, the steepening of the scalar potential between the inflationary plateau and the barrier generically leads to a potentially observable…
This study investigates the emerging phenomenon of "ghost hiring" or "ghost jobs", where employers advertise job openings without intending to fill them. Using a novel dataset from Glassdoor and employing a LLM-BERT technique, I find that…
Detailed knowledge of individual income dynamics is crucial for investigating the existence of the American dream: Are we able to improve our income status during our working life? This key question simply boils down to observing individual…
With the increasing frequency of major natural disasters, understanding their political consequences is of paramount importance for democratic accountability. The existing literature is deeply divided, with some studies finding that voters…
We decompose the U.S. consumption inequality distributional changes during the COVID-19 phase. Analyzing the Consumption Expenditure Interview Survey data, we decompose observed changes in consumption inequality into components attributable…
I introduce a high-dimensional Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) framework designed to estimate the effects of conventional monetary policy shocks. The model captures structural shocks as latent factors, enabling computationally…
Economists disagree about the factors driving the substantial increase in residual wage inequality in the US over the past few decades. To identify changes in the returns to unobserved skills, we make a novel assumption about the dynamics…
In an era of rapid technological advancements and macroeconomic shifts, worker reallocation is necessary, yet responses to labor market shocks remain sluggish, making it crucial to identify bottlenecks in occupational transitions to…
This paper develops a new model of business cycles. The model is economical in that it is solved with an aggregate demand-aggregate supply diagram, and the effects of shocks and policies are obtained by comparative statics. The model builds…
The coronavirus is a global event of historical proportions and just a few months changed the time series properties of the data in ways that make many pre-covid forecasting models inadequate. It also creates a new problem for estimation of…
We study the phase transition in a class of fiber bundle models in which the fiber strengths are distributed randomly within a finite interval and global load sharing is assumed. The dynamics is expressed as recursion relations for the…
Bifurcations can cause dynamical systems with slowly varying parameters to transition to far-away attractors. The terms ``critical transition'' or ``tipping point'' have been used to describe this situation. Critical transitions have been…
Many recent studies use individual longitudinal data to analyze job search behaviors. Such data allow the use of fixed-effects models, which supposedly address the issue of dynamic selection and make it possible to identify the structural…
The use of moving averages is pervasive in macroeconomic monitoring, particularly for tracking noisy series such as inflation. The choice of the look-back window is crucial. Too long of a moving average is not timely enough when faced with…
During the last decades particular effort has been directed towards understanding and predicting the relevant state of the business cycle with the objective of decomposing permanent shocks from those having only a transitory impact on real…
The empirical literature provides mixed results on the relationship between inflation and unemployment, therefore, there is no consensus on validity and stability of the Phillips Curve. It also seems to be closely related with…
Low inflation was once a welcome to both policy makers and the public. However, Japan's experience during the 1990's changed the consensus view on price of economists and central banks around the world. Facing deflation and zero interest…
The standard wage Phillips curve aggregates away from which workers reset wages when. I show this aggregation omits a first-order term: the covariance between workers' cost-push exposure and their reset frequency. I introduce two sufficient…
When agents' information is imperfect and dispersed, existing measures of macroeconomic uncertainty based on the forecast error variance have two distinct drivers: the variance of the economic shock and the variance of the information…