相关论文: Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting
This paper presents a model where intergenerational occupational mobility is the joint outcome of three main determinants: income incentives, equality of opportunity and changes in the composition of occupations. The model rationalizes the…
In the context of the global obesity epidemic, it is important to know who becomes obese and why. However, the processes that determine the changing shape of Body Mass Index (BMI) distributions in high-income societies are not…
Economies across the globe were brought to their knees due to lockdowns and social restriction measures to contain the spread of the SARS-CoV-2, despite the quick switch to remote working. This downfall may be partially explained by the…
In this paper we consider estimation of unobserved components in state space models using a dynamic factor approach to incorporate auxiliary information from high-dimensional data sources. We apply the methodology to unemployment estimation…
Microscopic models describing a whole of economic interactions in a closed society are considered. The presence of a tax system combined with a redistribution process is taken into account, as well as the occurrence of tax evasion. In…
Understanding the microeconomic details of technological catch-up processes offers great potential for informing both innovation economics and development policy. We study the economic transition of the PR China from an agrarian country to…
This paper presents a methodological approach to financial time series analysis by combining causal discovery and uncertainty-aware forecasting. As a case study, we focus on four key U.S. macroeconomic indicators -- GDP, economic growth,…
Both inflation and unemployment inflict social losses. When a tradeoff exists between the two, what would be the best combination of inflation and unemployment? A well known approach in economics to address this question consists to write…
We empirically investigate the distributional effects of inflation on workers' unemployment tail risks using instrumental variable quantile regression. We find that supply-driven inflation disproportionately raises unemployment tail risks…
The search for universal laws that help establish a relationship between dynamics and computation is driven by recent expansionist initiatives in biologically inspired computing. A general setting to understand both such dynamics and…
Critical transitions in multistable systems have been discussed as models for a variety of phenomena ranging from the extinctions of species to socio-economic changes and climate transitions between ice-ages and warm-ages. From bifurcation…
In this letter we present a stochastic dynamic model which can explain economic cycles. We show that the macroscopic description yields a complex dynamical landscape consisting of multiple stable fixed points, each corresponding to a split…
Labor share, the fraction of economic output accrued as wages, is inexplicably declining in industrialized countries. Whilst numerous prior works attempt to explain the decline via economic factors, our novel approach links the decline to…
In an adaptive population which models financial markets and distributed control, we consider how the dynamics depends on the diversity of the agents' initial preferences of strategies. When the diversity decreases, more agents tend to…
We propose an alternative delayed population growth difference equation model based on a modification of the Beverton-Holt recurrence, assuming a delay only in the growth contribution that takes into account that those individuals that die…
The emergence of labor division in multi-agent system is analyzed by the method of statistical physics. Considering a system consists of N homogeneous agents. Their behaviors are determined by the returns from their production. Using the…
The disordering of an initially phase segregated system of finite size, induced by the presence of highly mobile vacancies, is shown to exhibit dynamic scaling in its late stages. A set of characteristic exponents is introduced and computed…
Recent studies on fairness in automated decision making systems have both investigated the potential future impact of these decisions on the population at large, and emphasized that imposing ''typical'' fairness constraints such as…
We study double descent and benign overfitting in macroeconomic forecasting. We document that double-descent risk curves arise in standard macroeconomic datasets that are driven by a small number of latent factors, and we characterize when…
I study a static textbook model of monetary policy and relax the conventional assumption that the private sector has rational expectations. Instead, the private sector forms inflation forecasts according to a misspecified subjective model…