相关论文: Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting

Job security can never be taken for granted, especially in times of rapid, widespread and unexpected social and economic change. These changes can force workers to transition to new jobs. This may be because new technologies emerge or…

The objective of this work is twofold: to expand the depression models proposed by Tobin and analyse a supply shock, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, in this Keynesian conceptual environment. The expansion allows us to propose the evolution…

I have analyzed the practicality of the Evans Rule in the state based forward guidance and possible ways to reform it. I examined the biases, measurement errors, and other limitations extant in the unemployment and the inflation rate in the…

Dynamic benchmarks interweave model fitting and data collection in an attempt to mitigate the limitations of static benchmarks. In contrast to an extensive theoretical and empirical study of the static setting, the dynamic counterpart lags…

This paper studies identification and inference of the welfare gain that results from switching from one policy (such as the status quo policy) to another policy. The welfare gain is not point identified in general when data are obtained…

Population dynamic of getting divorced depends on many global factors, including social norms, economy, law or demographics as well as individual factors like the level of interpersonal or problem-solving skills of the spouses. We sought to…

The empirical literature on the relationship between income inequality and economic growth has produced highly heterogeneous and often conflicting results. This paper investigates the sources of this heterogeneity using a meta-analytic…

There is growing interest in anticipating critical transitions in natural systems, often pursued through statistical detection of early warning signals associated with dynamical bifurcations. In stochastic dynamical systems, such signals…

Understanding causal mechanisms across different populations is essential for designing effective public health interventions. Recently, difference graphs have been introduced as a tool to visually represent causal variations between two…

When complex systems are driven to extinction by some external factor, their non-stationary dynamics can present an intermittent behaviour between relative tranquility and burst of activity whose consequences are often catastrophic. To…

Decisions to pursue higher education are not fully explained by economic incentives, with social influence and peer effects playing a crucial, yet dynamically understudied, role. This paper develops a theoretical non-linear dynamics model…

Disruptions in the normal rhythmic functioning of the heart, termed as arrhythmia, often result from qualitative changes in the excitation dynamics of the organ. The transitions between different types of arrhythmia are accompanied by…

We study simple models of intermittency, involving switching between two states, within the dynamical large-deviation formalism. Singularities appear in the formalism when switching is cooperative, or when its basic timescale diverges. In…

This paper develops an algorithm for detecting US recessions in real time. The algorithm constructs hundreds of millions of recession classifiers by combining unemployment and vacancy data. Classifiers are then selected to avoid both false…

Amidst growing uncertainty and frequent restructurings, the impacts of employee exits are becoming one of the central concerns for organizations. Using rich communication data from a large holding company, we examine the effects of employee…

We investigate the effect of tax evasion on the income distribution and the inequality index of a society through a kinetic model described by a set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The model allows to compute the global…

Driven diffusive systems may undergo phase transitions to sustain atypical values of the current. This leads in some cases to symmetry-broken space-time trajectories which enhance the probability of such fluctuations. Here we shed light on…

Unemployment benefits in the US were extended by up to 73 weeks during the Great Recession. Equilibrium labor market theory indicates that extensions of benefit duration impact not only search decisions by job seekers but also job vacancy…

The paper aims to explore the impacts of bi-demographic structure on the current account and growth. Using a SVAR modeling, we track the dynamic impacts between these underlying variables. New insights have been developed about the dynamic…

The Great Recession highlighted the role of financial and uncertainty shocks as drivers of business cycle fluctuations. However, the fact that uncertainty shocks may affect economic activity by tightening financial conditions makes…