相关论文: Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that…

The implementation of a supervision and incentive process for identical workers may lead to wage variance that stems from employer and employee optimization. The harder it is to assess the nature of the labor output, the more important such…

We re-estimate statistical properties and predictive power of a set of Phillips curves, which are expressed as linear and lagged relationships between the rates of inflation, unemployment, and change in labour force. For France, several…

This paper considers how the effect of job displacement varies across different individuals. In particular, our interest centers on features of the distribution of the individual-level effect of job displacement. Identifying features of…

We develop an alternative theory to the aggregate matching function in which workers search for jobs through a network of firms: the labor flow network. The lack of an edge between two companies indicates the impossibility of labor flows…

We have modeled the employment/population ratio in the largest developed countries. Our results show that the evolution of the employment rate since 1970 can be predicted with a high accuracy by a linear dependence on the logarithm of real…

This paper aims to compute the unemployment rate $u^*$ that is consistent with full employment in the United States. First, it argues that the most appropriate economic translation of the legal notion of full employment is social…

We explore the role of non-ergodicity in the relationship between income inequality, the extent of concentration in the income distribution, and mobility, the feasibility of an individual to change their position in the income distribution.…

We study how firm heterogeneity and market power affect macroeconomic fragility, defined as the probability of long slumps. We propose a theory in which the positive interaction between firm entry, competition and factor supply can give…

We study the structural changes in multivariate time-series by estimating and comparing stationary graphs for macroeconomic time series before and after an economic crisis such as the Great Recession. Building on a latent time series…

Recessions are periods in which the least productive firms in the economy exit, and as the economy recovers, they are replaced by new and more productive entrants. These cleansing effects improve the average firm productivity. At the same…

Numerous study on natural and man made systems including rotating convection report the phenomena of supercritical and subcritical transitions from one state to another with the variation of relevant control parameters. However, the…

Deploying an algorithmically informed policy is a significant intervention in the structure of society. As is increasingly acknowledged, predictive algorithms have performative effects: using them can shift the distribution of social…

We investigate the use of the Hurst exponent, dynamically computed over a moving time-window, to evaluate the level of stability/instability of financial firms. Financial firms bailed-out as a consequence of the 2007-2010 credit crisis show…

In this paper, we study when we might expect the optimization curve induced by gradient descent to be \emph{convex} -- precluding, for example, an initial plateau followed by a sharp decrease, making it difficult to decide when optimization…

This paper aims to estimate the impact of economic and financial crises on the unemployment rate in the European Union, taking also into consideration the institutional specificities, since unemployment was the main channel through which…

Conditions such as insomnia, cardiac arrhythmia and jet-lag share a common feature: they are all related to the ability of biological systems to synchronize with the day-night cycle. When organisms lose resilience, this ability of…

A stochastic process, when subject to resetting to its initial condition at a constant rate, generically reaches a non-equilibrium steady state. We study analytically how the steady state is approached in time and find an unusual relaxation…

This paper presents a new way to account for downside and upside risks when producing density nowcasts of GDP growth. The approach relies on modelling location, scale and shape common factors in real-time macroeconomic data. While movements…

In a standard bifurcation of a dynamical system, the stationary points (or more generally attractors) change qualitatively when varying a control parameter. Here we describe a novel unusual effect, when the change of a parameter, e.g. a…