相关论文: Modelling dependence within and across run-off tri…

In this paper we consider the classical and Erlang(2) risk processes when the inter-claim times and claim amounts are dependent. We assume that the dependence structure is defined through a Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) copula and show…

Bayesian hierarchical linear models provide a natural framework to analyze nested and clustered data. Classical estimation with Markov chain Monte Carlo produces well calibrated posterior distributions but becomes computationally expensive…

Many complex systems have been shown to share universal properties of organization, such as scale independence, modularity and self-similarity. We borrow tools from statistical physics in order to study structural preferential attachment…

We address tracking and prediction of multiple moving objects in visual data streams as inference and sampling in a disentangled latent state-space model. By encoding objects separately and including explicit position information in the…

This paper proposes an online tree-based Bayesian approach for reinforcement learning. For inference, we employ a generalised context tree model. This defines a distribution on multivariate Gaussian piecewise-linear models, which can be…

We develop flexible methods of deriving variational inference for models with complex latent variable structure. By splitting the variables in these models into "global" parameters and "local" latent variables, we define a class of…

Using a hierarchical construction, we develop methods for a wide and flexible class of models by taking a fully parametric approach to generalized linear mixed models with complex covariance dependence. The Laplace approximation is used to…

Nonstationarity is ubiquitous in practical classification settings, leading deployed models to perform poorly even when they generalize well to holdout sets available at training time. We address this by reframing nonstationary…

Modeling nonstationary processes is of paramount importance to many scientific disciplines including environmental science, ecology, and finance, among others. Consequently, flexible methodology that provides accurate estimation across a…

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In…

We consider the problem of learning the causal MAG of a system from observational data in the presence of latent variables and selection bias. Constraint-based methods are one of the main approaches for solving this problem, but the…

We propose a general method for deriving prognostics-based predictive maintenance policies. The method takes into account the available decision options at hand, the information on the future state of the system provided by a prognostic…

Spatial maps of extreme precipitation are crucial in flood protection. With the aim of producing maps of precipitation return levels, we propose a novel approach to model a collection of spatially distributed time series where the…

We present a Bayesian approach to machine learning with probabilistic programs. In our approach, training on available data is implemented as inference on a hierarchical model. The posterior distribution of model parameters is then used to…

This paper is focused on the statistical analysis of data consisting of a collection of multiple series of probability measures that are indexed by distinct time instants and supported over a bounded interval of the real line. By modeling…

We endow the classical stochastic fluid process with a duration-dependent Markovian arrival process (DMArP). We show that this provides a flexible model for the revenue of a solar energy generator. In particular, it allows for heavy-tailed…

We model stochastic choice as environment-dependent switching among a small library of deterministic decision rules. A Random Rule Model generates menu-level choice probabilities via named, interpretable rules weighted by observable menu…

We introduce a new class of conditional autoregressive models for spatially dependent functional data, formulated through conditional means given neighboring functional observations and characterized by a covariance operator and a spatial…

In this work we model the dynamics of a population that evolves as a continuous time branching process with a trait structure and ecological interactions in form of mutations and competition between individuals. We generalize existing…

Production forecasting is a key step to design the future development of a reservoir. A classical way to generate such forecasts consists in simulating future production for numerical models representative of the reservoir. However,…