相关论文: Forecast Aggregation via Peer Prediction

Crowdsourcing provides a popular paradigm for data collection at scale. We study the problem of selecting subsets of workers from a given worker pool to maximize the accuracy under a budget constraint. One natural question is whether we…

This paper introduces mixsemble, an ensemble method that adapts the Dawid-Skene model to aggregate predictions from multiple model-based clustering algorithms. Unlike traditional crowdsourcing, which relies on human labels, the framework…

In many areas of industry and society, e.g., energy, healthcare, logistics, agents collect vast amounts of data that they deem proprietary. These data owners extract predictive information of varying quality and relevance from data…

In recent years, crowdsourcing, aka human aided computation has emerged as an effective platform for solving problems that are considered complex for machines alone. Using human is time-consuming and costly due to monetary compensations.…

In order to scale standard Gaussian process (GP) regression to large-scale datasets, aggregation models employ factorized training process and then combine predictions from distributed experts. The state-of-the-art aggregation models,…

Forecast combination -- the aggregation of individual forecasts from multiple experts or models -- is a proven approach to economic forecasting. To date, research on economic forecasting has concentrated on local combination methods, which…

Crowdsourcing has emerged as an effective means for performing a number of machine learning tasks such as annotation and labelling of images and other data sets. In most early settings of crowdsourcing, the task involved classification,…

The paper presents numerical experiments and some theoretical developments in prediction with expert advice (PEA). One experiment deals with predicting electricity consumption depending on temperature and uses real data. As the pattern of…

Crowdsourcing has emerged as a prevalent method for mitigating the risks of correctness and security in outsourced cloud computing. This process involves an aggregator distributing tasks, collecting responses, and aggregating outcomes from…

Peer prediction refers to a collection of mechanisms for eliciting information from human agents when direct verification of the obtained information is unavailable. They are designed to have a game-theoretic equilibrium where everyone…

Can Crowds serve as useful allies in policy design? How do non-expert Crowds perform relative to experts in the assessment of policy measures? Does the geographic location of non-expert Crowds, with relevance to the policy context, alter…

We propose a simple empirical scaling law that describes load forecasting accuracy at different levels of aggregation. The model is justified based on a simple decomposition of individual consumption patterns. We show that for different…

Hierarchical forecasting methods have been widely used to support aligned decision-making by providing coherent forecasts at different aggregation levels. Traditional hierarchical forecasting approaches, such as the bottom-up and top-down…

Modern decision making tools are based on statistical analysis of abundant data, which is often collected by querying multiple individuals. We consider data collection through crowdsourcing, where independent and self-interested agents,…

A clinical study is often necessary for exploring important research questions; however, this approach is sometimes time and money consuming. Another extreme approach, which is to collect and aggregate opinions from crowds, provides a…

Crowdsourcing systems have been used to accumulate massive amounts of labeled data for applications such as computer vision and natural language processing. However, because crowdsourced labeling is inherently dynamic and uncertain,…

Data fusion has played an important role in data mining because high-quality data is required in a lot of applications. As on-line data may be out-of-date and errors in the data may propagate with copying and referring between sources, it…

This paper addresses the critical challenge of improving predictions of climate extreme events, specifically heat waves, using machine learning methods. Our work is framed as a classification problem in which we try to predict whether…

Trajectory prediction, the task of forecasting future agent behavior from past data, is central to safe and efficient autonomous driving. A diverse set of methods (e.g., rule-based or learned with different architectures and datasets) have…

The research area of algorithms with predictions has seen recent success showing how to incorporate machine learning into algorithm design to improve performance when the predictions are correct, while retaining worst-case guarantees when…