相关论文: Forecast Aggregation via Peer Prediction

Many organizations face critical decisions that rely on forecasts of binary events. In these situations, organizations often gather forecasts from multiple experts or models and average those forecasts to produce a single aggregate…

When eliciting forecasts from a group of experts, it is important to reward predictions so that market participants are incentivized to tell the truth. Existing mechanisms partially accomplish this but remain susceptible to groups of…

Judgment aggregation problems form a class of collective decision-making problems represented in an abstract way, subsuming some well known problems such as voting. A collective decision can be reached in many ways, but a direct one-step…

This paper considers the challenge of evaluating a set of classifiers, as done in shared task evaluations like the KDD Cup or NIST TREC, without expert labels. While expert labels provide the traditional cornerstone for evaluating…

Through Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) studies, a number of time-series data is collected across multiple individuals, continuously monitoring various items of emotional behavior. Such complex data is commonly analyzed in an…

Many internet platforms that collect behavioral big data use it to predict user behavior for internal purposes and for their business customers (e.g., advertisers, insurers, security forces, governments, political consulting firms) who…

When data are stored across multiple locations, directly pooling all the data together for statistical analysis may be impossible due to communication costs and privacy concerns. Distributed computing systems allow the analysis of such…

Panels with large time $(T)$ and cross-sectional $(N)$ dimensions are a key data structure in social sciences and other fields. A central question in panel data analysis is whether to pool data across individuals or to estimate separate…

Simulation studies are commonly used to evaluate the performance of newly developed meta-analysis methods. For methodology that is developed for an aggregated data meta-analysis, researchers often resort to simulation of the aggregated data…

Collective decision-making is the process through which diverse stakeholders reach a joint decision. Within societal settings, one example is participatory budgeting, where constituents decide on the funding of public projects. How to most…

An inconsistent knowledge base can be abstracted as a set of arguments and a defeat relation among them. There can be more than one consistent way to evaluate such an argumentation graph. Collective argument evaluation is the problem of…

Crowdsourcing offers an affordable and scalable means to collect relevance judgments for IR test collections. However, crowd assessors may show higher variance in judgment quality than trusted assessors. In this paper, we investigate how to…

An algorithm that outputs predictions about the state of the world will almost always be designed with the implicit or explicit goal of outputting accurate predictions (i.e., predictions that are likely to be true). In addition, the rise of…

Large-scale data analysis poses both statistical and computational problems which need to be addressed simultaneously. A solution is often straightforward if the data are homogeneous: one can use classical ideas of subsampling and mean…

Evaluating workers is a critical aspect of any crowdsourcing system. In this paper, we devise techniques for evaluating workers by finding confidence intervals on their error rates. Unlike prior work, we focus on "conciseness"---that is,…

With the increased interest in machine learning and big data problems, the need for large amounts of labelled data has also grown. However, it is often infeasible to get experts to label all of this data, which leads many practitioners to…

In this paper, a novel method to perform model-based clustering of time series is proposed. The procedure relies on two iterative steps: (i) K global forecasting models are fitted via pooling by considering the series pertaining to each…

For complex crowdsourcing tasks that require collaboration between multiple individuals, teams should be formed by considering both worker compatibility and expertise. Furthermore, the nature of crowdsourcing dictates the budget for tasks…

This study explores how Bayesian networks (BNs) can improve forecast accuracy compared to logistic regression and recalibration and aggregation methods, using data from the Good Judgment Project. Regularized logistic regression models and a…

Many machine learning systems today are trained on large amounts of human-annotated data. Data annotation tasks that require a high level of competency make data acquisition expensive, while the resulting labels are often subjective,…