相关论文: A Bayesian interpretation of inconsistency measure…
The success of present and future cosmological studies is tied to the ability to detect discrepancies in complex data sets within the framework of a cosmological model. Tensions caused by the presence of unknown systematic effects need to…
The continuous progress toward more precise cosmological surveys and experiments has galvanized recent interest into consistency tests on cosmological parameters and models. At the heart of this effort is quantifying the degree of…
Bayesian inference is used to estimate continuous parameter values given measured data in many fields of science. The method relies on conditional probability densities to describe information about both data and parameters, yet the notion…
Discordance in the $\Lambda$CDM cosmological model can be seen by comparing parameters constrained by CMB measurements to those inferred by probes of large scale structure. Recent improvements in observations, including final data releases…
Assessing the consistency of parameter constraints derived from different cosmological probes is an important way to test the validity of the underlying cosmological model. In an earlier work [Nicola et al., 2017], we computed constraints…
We report an inconsistency found in probability theory (also referred to as measure-theoretic probability). For probability measures induced by real-valued random variables, we deduce an "equality" such that one side of the "equality" is a…
Consistency between cosmological data sets is essential for ongoing and future cosmological analyses. We first investigate the questions of stability and applicability of some moment-based inconsistency measures to multiple data sets. We…
Bayesian statistics is based on the subjective definition of probability as {\it ``degree of belief''} and on Bayes' theorem, the basic tool for assigning probabilities to hypotheses combining {\it a priori} judgements and experimental…
Tensions between cosmological parameters derived through different channels can be a genuine signature of new physics that $\Lambda$CDM as the standard model is not able to reproduce, in particular in the missing consistency between…
Tensions between cosmological measurements by different surveys or probes have always been important --- and are presently much discussed --- as they may lead to evidence of new physics. Several tests have been devised to probe the…
Quantifying tensions -- inconsistencies amongst measurements of cosmological parameters by different experiments -- has emerged as a crucial part of modern cosmological data analysis. Statistically-significant tensions between two…
Recent results regarding dark energy are mutually inconsistent under the $\Lambda$CDM cosmological model, hinting at the possibility of undiscovered physics. However, the currently accepted cosmological parameters come from a joint…
Quantifying the concordance between different cosmological experiments is important for testing the validity of theoretical models and systematics in the observations. In earlier work, we thus proposed the Surprise, a concordance measure…
We provide a new interpretation for the Bayes factor combination used in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) first year analysis to quantify the tension between the DES and Planck datasets. The ratio quantifies a Bayesian confidence in our ability…
Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of…
We present a comprehensive analysis of statistical tools for evaluating tensions in cosmological parameter estimates arising from distinct datasets. Focusing on the unresolved Hubble constant ($H_0$) tension, we explore the Pantheon Plus +…
Model inadequacy and measurement uncertainty are two of the most confounding aspects of inference and prediction in quantitative sciences. The process of scientific inference (the inverse problem) and prediction (the forward problem)…
Several cosmological measurements have attained significant levels of maturity and accuracy over the last decade. Continuing this trend, future observations promise measurements of the statistics of the cosmic mass distribution at an…
Correlations between planetary and stellar properties, particularly age, can provide insight on planetary formation and evolution processes. However, the underlying source of such trends can be unclear, and measurement uncertainties and…
Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…