相关论文: Forecasting Fertility with Parametric Mixture Mode…

Accuracy in fertility forecasting has proved challenging and warrants renewed attention. One way to improve accuracy is to combine the strengths of a set of existing models through model averaging. The model-averaged forecast is derived…

Fertility differentials by urban-rural residence and nativity of women in Australia significantly impact population composition at sub-national levels. We aim to provide consistent fertility forecasts for Australian women characterized by…

The present study deals with the estimation of the mean value of fecundability by fitting a theoretical distribution from the observed month of first conception of the married women who did not use any contraceptive method before their…

Since the 1940s, population projections have in most cases been produced using the deterministic cohort component method. However, in 2015, for the first time, in a major advance, the United Nations issued official probabilistic population…

A multilevel functional data method is adapted for forecasting age-specific mortality for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses multilevel functional principal component…

Macro-level modeling is still the dominant approach in many demographic applications because of its simplicity. Individual-level models, on the other hand, provide a more comprehensive understanding of observed patterns; however, their…

A rapid decline in mortality and fertility has become major issues in many developed countries over the past few decades. A precise model for forecasting demographic movements is important for decision making in social welfare policies and…

The United Nations regularly publishes projections of the populations of all the world's countries broken down by age and sex. These projections are the de facto standard and are widely used by international organizations, governments and…

The Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) is used in low- and middle-income countries to produce estimates and short-term forecasts of family planning indicators, such as modern contraceptive use and unmet need for contraceptives.…

Forecasts of mortality provide vital information about future populations, with implications for pension and health-care policy as well as for decisions made by private companies about life insurance and annuity pricing. Stochastic…

The United Nations (UN) Population Division is considering producing probabilistic projections for the total fertility rate (TFR) using the Bayesian hierarchical model of Alkema et al. (2011), which produces predictive distributions of TFR…

Several demographic and health indicators, including the total fertility rate (TFR) and modern contraceptive use rate (mCPR), evolve similarly over time, characterized by a transition between stable states. Existing approaches for…

Estimation of stillbirth rates globally is complicated because of the paucity of reliable data from countries where most stillbirths occur. We compiled data and developed a Bayesian hierarchical temporal sparse regression model for…

The bayesTFR package for R provides a set of functions to produce probabilistic projections of the total fertility rates (TFR) for all countries, and is widely used, including as part of the basis for the UN's official population…

Although by now the ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting is the most advanced approach to weather prediction, ensemble forecasts still might suffer from lack of calibration and/or display systematic bias, thus require some…

Probability forecasting is common in the geosciences, the finance sector, and elsewhere. It is sometimes the case that one has multiple probability-forecasts for the same target. How is the information in these multiple forecast systems…

The United Nations released official probabilistic population projections (PPP) for all countries for the first time in July 2014. These were obtained by projecting the period total fertility rate (TFR) and life expectancy at birth ($e_0$)…

Family planning is a global development priority and a key indicator of reproductive health. Monitoring progress is challenged by gaps in survey data across countries. The United Nations Population Division addresses this with the Family…

This paper presents a novel approach for modeling mortality rates above age 70 by proposing a mixture-based model. This model is compared to four other widely used models: the Beard, Gompertz, Makeham, and Perks models. Our model can…

Modelling and forecasting homogeneous age-specific mortality rates of multiple countries could lead to improvements in long-term forecasting. Data fed into joint models are often grouped according to nominal attributes, such as geographic…