相关论文: Forecasting Fertility with Parametric Mixture Mode…

This paper shows how measures of uncertainty can be applied to existing population forecasts using Estonia as a case study. The measures of forecast uncertainty are relatively easy to calculate and meet several important criteria used by…

We describe and analyze a broad class of mixture models for real-valued multivariate data in which the probability density of observations within each component of the model is represented as an arbitrary combination of basis functions.…

Continuous-time multi-state survival models can be used to describe health-related processes over time. In the presence of interval-censored times for transitions between the living states, the likelihood is constructed using transition…

Predictive hydrological uncertainty can be quantified by using ensemble methods. If properly formulated, these methods can offer improved predictive performance by combining multiple predictions. In this work, we use 50-year-long monthly…

Parametric statistical methods play a central role in analyzing risk through its underlying frequency and severity components. Given the wide availability of numerical algorithms and high-speed computers, researchers and practitioners often…

In demographic literature, forecast uncertainty is often quantified with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from drawbacks, namely model misspecification, selection effect, and lack of finite-sample…

We describe a new method for evaluating Bayes factors. The key idea is to introduce a hypermodel in which the competing models are components of a mixture distribution. Inference for the mixing probabilities then yields estimates of the…

The probability of the survival of the population of individuals of both sexes of given mature age, procreation rate and structure stability has been searched in the numerical experiment. The populations with long period of reproduction and…

We present a Bayesian method for characterizing the mating system of populations reproducing through a mixture of self-fertilization and random outcrossing. Our method uses patterns of genetic variation across the genome as a basis for…

The Box-Cox transformation can sometimes yield noticeable improvements in model simplicity, variance homogeneity and precision of estimation, such as in modelling and forecasting age-specific fertility. Despite its importance, there have…

The standard methods to calculate the Total Fertility Rate require the reliable age-specific fertility rate including birth data and the related age-specific women's population data. Historically, the number of births was often not counted…

Each individual in society experiences an evolution of their income during their lifetime. Macroscopically, this dynamics creates a statistical relationship between age and income for each society. In this study, we investigate income…

There has been growing interest on forecasting mortality. In this article, we propose a novel dynamic Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting the age-at-death distribution, focusing on a three-components mixture of a Dirac mass, a…

We introduce a statistical method for modeling and forecasting functional panel data represented by multiple densities. Density functions are nonnegative and have a constrained integral and thus do not constitute a linear vector space. We…

We present a mathematical simplification for the evolutionary dynamics of a heritable trait within a two-sex population. This trait is assumed to control the timing of sex-specific life-history events, such as the age of sexual maturity and…

In many data-driven applications, collecting data from different sources is increasingly desirable for enhancing performance. In this paper, we are interested in the problem of probabilistic forecasting with multi-source time series. We…

Background: Overweight and obesity are an increasing phenomenon worldwide. Predicting future overweight or obesity early in the childhood reliably could enable a successful intervention by experts. While a lot of research has been done…

Model averaging combines forecasts obtained from a range of models, and it often produces more accurate forecasts than a forecast from a single model. The crucial part of forecast accuracy improvement in using the model averaging lies in…

Age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) provide the most extensive record of reproductive change, but their aggregate nature obscures the individual-level behavioral mechanisms that drive fertility trends. To bridge this micro-macro divide, we…

In the recent COVID-19 pandemic, a wide range of epidemiological modelling approaches have been used to predict the effective reproduction number, R(t), and other COVID-19 related measures such as the daily rate of exponential growth, r(t).…