相关论文: Multilevel Monte Carlo estimation of the expected …

We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo (NSMC), a methodology to sample from sequences of probability distributions, even where the random variables are high-dimensional. NSMC generalises the SMC framework by requiring only approximate,…

A core problem in statistics and probabilistic machine learning is to compute probability distributions and expectations. This is the fundamental problem of Bayesian statistics and machine learning, which frames all inference as…

Being the most classical generative model for serial data, state-space models (SSM) are fundamental in AI and statistical machine learning. In SSM, any form of parameter learning or latent state inference typically involves the computation…

The aim of this paper is to describe a new an integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies.…

Monte Carlo maximum likelihood (MCML) provides an elegant approach to find maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) for latent variable models. However, MCML algorithms are computationally expensive when the latent variables are…

In this paper, we evaluate the performance of the multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) for deterministic and uncertain hyperbolic systems, where randomness is introduced either in the modeling parameters or in the approximation algorithms.…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a simulation method commonly used for estimating expectations with respect to a given distribution. We consider estimating the covariance matrix of the asymptotic multivariate normal distribution of a…

Evaluating expectations on an Ising model (or Boltzmann machine) is essential for various applications, including statistical machine learning. However, in general, the evaluation is computationally difficult because it involves intractable…

The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are popular when considering sampling from a high-dimensional random variable $\mathbf{x}$ with possibly unnormalised probability density $p$ and observed data $\mathbf{d}$. However, MCMC requires…

We develop a novel Monte Carlo algorithm for the vector consisting of the supremum, the time at which the supremum is attained and the position at a given (constant) time of an exponentially tempered L\'evy process. The algorithm, based on…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is computationally expensive, especially for complex models. Alternative methods make simplifying assumptions about the posterior to reduce computational burden, but their impact on predictive…

Stochastic PDE eigenvalue problems often arise in the field of uncertainty quantification, whereby one seeks to quantify the uncertainty in an eigenvalue, or its eigenfunction. In this paper we present an efficient multilevel quasi-Monte…

We introduce a new class of sequential Monte Carlo methods which reformulates the essence of the nested sampling method of Skilling (2006) in terms of sequential Monte Carlo techniques. Two new algorithms are proposed, nested sampling via…

In this paper, the truncated Euler-Maruyama (EM) method is employed together with the Multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) method to approximate the expectations of functions of solutions to stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The…

In this paper, we present a novel method for computing the relative entropy as well as the expected relative entropy using an MCMC chain. The relative entropy from information theory can be used to quantify differences in posterior…

This paper proposes a new multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for the ergodic SDEs which do not satisfy the contractivity condition. By introducing the change of measure technique, we simulate the path with contractivity and add the…

In the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for sequential simulations such as the neural stochastic differential equations, the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method is known to offer better theoretical computational complexity compared to the…

Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are very efficient techniques designed to tune simulation estimators on-line. In this work, we present an alternative to stochastic approximation to tune the optimal change of measure in the context of…

An efficient, joint transmission delay and channel parameter estimation algorithm is proposed for uplink asynchronous direct-sequence code-division multiple access (DS-CDMA) systems based on the space-alternating generalized expectation…

We present a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for the uncertainty quantification of variably saturated porous media flow that are modeled using the Richards' equation. We propose a stochastic extension for the empirical models that are…