相关论文: Multilevel Monte Carlo estimation of the expected …

Objectives: Value of information (VOI) analyses can help policy-makers make informed decisions about whether to conduct and how to design future studies. Historically, a computationally expensive method to compute the Expected Value of…

We consider the efficient use of an approximation within Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), with subsequent importance sampling (IS) correction of the Markov chain inexact output, leading to asymptotically exact inference. We detail…

Many probabilistic models of interest in scientific computing and machine learning have expensive, black-box likelihoods that prevent the application of standard techniques for Bayesian inference, such as MCMC, which would require access to…

Risk prediction models are often advertised as deterministic functions that map covariates to predicted risks. However, they are typically trained using finite samples, and as such, their predictions are inherently uncertain. This…

We study statistical model checking of continuous-time stochastic hybrid systems. The challenge in applying statistical model checking to these systems is that one cannot simulate such systems exactly. We employ the multilevel Monte Carlo…

In this paper we present a new approach to control variates for improving computational efficiency of Ensemble Monte Carlo. We present the approach using simulation of paths of a time-dependent nonlinear stochastic equation. The core idea…

Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) and unbiased estimators recently proposed by McLeish (Monte Carlo Methods Appl., 2011) and Rhee and Glynn (Oper. Res., 2015) are closely related. This connection is elaborated by presenting a new general class…

Importance sampling (IS) is commonly used for cross validation (CV) in Bayesian models, because it only involves reweighting existing posterior draws without needing to re-estimate the model by re-running Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).…

This work presents an efficient approach for accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for large-scale problems using low-fidelity machine learning models. While conventional techniques for large-scale Bayesian…

Multi-sample, importance-weighted variational autoencoders (IWAE) give tighter bounds and more accurate uncertainty estimates than variational autoencoders (VAE) trained with a standard single-sample objective. However, IWAEs scale poorly:…

Nested integration of the form $\int f\left(\int g(\bs{y},\bs{x})\di{}\bs{x}\right)\di{}\bs{y}$, characterized by an outer integral connected to an inner integral through a nonlinear function $f$, is a challenging problem in various fields,…

Because of their robustness, efficiency and non-intrusiveness, Monte Carlo methods are probably the most popular approach in uncertainty quantification to computing expected values of quantities of interest (QoIs). Multilevel Monte Carlo…

We consider the problem of estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution with an unknown normalizing constant, and where even the unnormalized target needs to be approximated at finite resolution. Under such an assumption,…

The order of convergence of the Monte Carlo method is 1/2 which means that we need quadruple samples to decrease the error in half in the numerical simulation. Multilevel Monte Carlo methods reach the same order of error by spending less…

We generalize the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method of Giles to the simulation of systems of particles that interact via a mean field. When the number of particles is large, these systems are described by a McKean-Vlasov process - a…

Estimating Monte Carlo error is critical to valid simulation results in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and initial sequence estimators were one of the first methods introduced for this. Over the last few years, focus has been on…

We apply multilevel Monte Carlo for option pricing problems using exponential L\'{e}vy models with a uniform timestep discretisation to monitor the running maximum required for lookback and barrier options. The numerical results demonstrate…

We interpret uncertainty in a model for seismic wave propagation by treating the model parameters as random variables, and apply the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method to reduce the cost of approximating expected values of selected,…

The problem of optimising functions with intractable gradients frequently arise in machine learning and statistics, ranging from maximum marginal likelihood estimation procedures to fine-tuning of generative models. Stochastic approximation…

This paper considers the problem of optimizing the average tracking error for an elliptic partial differential equation with an uncertain lognormal diffusion coefficient. In particular, the application of the multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo…