相关论文: Multilevel Monte Carlo estimation of the expected …

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are generally regarded as the gold standard technique for Bayesian inference. They are theoretically well-understood and conceptually simple to apply in practice. The drawback of MCMC is that in…

We propose a new Monte Carlo-based estimator for digital options with assets modelled by a stochastic differential equation (SDE). The new estimator is based on repeated path splitting and relies on the correlation of approximate paths of…

This paper provides a framework in which multilevel Monte Carlo and continuous level Monte Carlo can be compared. In continuous level Monte Carlo the level of refinement is determined by an exponentially distributed random variable, which…

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are primarily used for sampling from a given probability distribution and estimating multi-dimensional integrals based on the information contained in the generated samples. Whenever it is possible, more…

In this paper we consider the parameter estimation problem associated to partially-observed time changed SDEs, with observations that are given at discrete times. In particular we consider both likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We develop…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) requires to evaluate the full data likelihood at different parameter values iteratively and is often computationally infeasible for large data sets. In this paper, we propose to approximate the log-likelihood…

Calculating averages with respect to multimodal probability distributions is often necessary in applications. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to this end, which are based on time averages along a realization of a Markov process…

In this work, we study the approximation of expected values of functional quantities on the solution of a stochastic differential equation (SDE), where we replace the Monte Carlo estimation with the evaluation of a deep neural network. Once…

We build on auto-encoding sequential Monte Carlo (AESMC): a method for model and proposal learning based on maximizing the lower bound to the log marginal likelihood in a broad family of structured probabilistic models. Our approach relies…

In this paper, we consider a Monte Carlo simulation method (MinMC) that approximates prices and risk measures for a range $\Gamma$ of model parameters at once. The simulation method that we study has recently gained popularity [HS20, FPP22,…

Accurately and efficiently estimating system performance under uncertainty is paramount in power system planning and operation. Monte Carlo simulation is often used for this purpose, but convergence may be slow, especially when detailed…

In predictive modeling with simulation or machine learning, it is critical to accurately assess the quality of estimated values through output analysis. In recent decades output analysis has become enriched with methods that quantify the…

We propose a Multilevel Monte-Carlo (MLMC) method for computing entropy measure valued solutions of hyperbolic conservation laws. Sharp bounds for the narrow convergence of MLMC for the entropy measure valued solutions are proposed. An…

In this work, we tackle the problem of minimising the Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of output quantities of complex differential models with random input data, using gradient-based approaches in combination with the Multi-Level Monte…

The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has been applied successfully in a wide range of settings since its first introduction by Giles (2008). When using only two levels, the method can be viewed as a kind of control-variate approach to…

This paper deals with the Monte-Carlo methods for evaluating expectations of functionals of solutions to McKean-Vlasov Stochastic Differential Equations (MV-SDE) with drifts of super-linear growth. We assume that the MV-SDE is approximated…

Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is challenging when the likelihood function is irregular and expensive to compute. We explore several sampling algorithms that make use of subset evaluations to reduce computational…

Recently, Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) methods have been proposed for scaling up Monte Carlo computations to large data problems. Whilst these approaches have proven useful in many applications, vanilla SG-MCMC…

The Self-Learning Monte Carlo (SLMC) method is a Monte Carlo approach that has emerged in recent years by integrating concepts from machine learning with conventional Monte Carlo techniques. Designed to accelerate the numerical study of…

The trace of a matrix function f(A), most notably of the matrix inverse, can be estimated stochastically using samples< x,f(A)x> if the components of the random vectors x obey an appropriate probability distribution. However such a…