相关论文: Insights and inference for the proportion below th…

The p-values are often implicitly used as a measure of evidence for the hypotheses of the tests. This practice has been analyzed with different approaches. It is generally accepted for the one-sided hypothesis problem, but it is often…

The present study uses domain experts to estimate welfare levels and indicators from high-resolution satellite imagery. We use the wealth quintiles from the 2015 Tanzania DHS dataset as ground truth data. We analyse the performance of the…

In this paper, we consider a risk process with deterministic growth and multiplicative jumps to model the capital of a low-income household. Reflecting the high-risk nature of the low-income environment, capital losses are assumed to be…

Poverty maps are used to aid important political decisions such as allocation of development funds by governments and international organizations. Those decisions should be based on the most accurate poverty figures. However, often reliable…

In science, the most widespread statistical quantities are perhaps $p$-values. A typical advice is to reject the null hypothesis $H_0$ if the corresponding p-value is sufficiently small (usually smaller than 0.05). Many criticisms regarding…

I measure the uncertainty affecting estimates of economic inequality in the US and investigate how accounting for properly estimated standard errors can affect the results of empirical and structural macroeconomic studies. In my analysis, I…

Various properties of relative entropy have led to its widespread use in information theory. These properties suggest that relative entropy has a role to play in systems that attempt to perform inference in terms of probability…

Income inequality and redistribution policies are modeled with a minimal, endogenous model of a simple foraging economy. Significant income inequalities emerge from the model for populations of equally capable individuals presented with…

Models are consistently treated as approximations and all procedures are consistent with this. They do not treat the model as being true. In this context $p$-values are one measure of approximation, a small $p$-value indicating a poor…

We consider the classic problem of interval estimation of a proportion $p$ based on binomial sampling. The "exact" Clopper-Pearson confidence interval for $p$ is known to be unnecessarily conservative. We propose coverage-adjustments of the…

We create a network model to study the spread of an epidemic through physically proximate and accidental daily human contacts in a city, and simulate outcomes for two kinds of agents - poor and non-poor. Under non-intervention, peak…

Three statistical studies, all published between 2004 and 2008 but without referring to one another, assert a useful equivalence involving the hazard ratio, a parameter estimated for time to event data by the frequently used proportional…

This paper presents a new estimator of the intercept of a linear regression model in cases where the outcome varaible is observed subject to a selection rule. The intercept is often in this context of inherent interest; for example, in a…

A statistical measure is given expressing relative occurrences of quantities within a given data set. Application of this measure on several real life physical data sets and some abstract distributions are shown to yield consistent results.…

We study budget aggregation under $\ell_1$-utilities, a model for collective decision making in which agents with heterogeneous preferences must allocate a public budget across a set of alternatives. Each agent reports their preferred…

This paper presents a physical perspective on the human migration phenomenon claiming that human social behaviors are somehow but not completely inspired by nature. Human displacement or migration in the world is highly affected by…

Politicians world-wide frequently promise a better life for their citizens. We find that the probability that a country will increase its {\it per capita} GDP ({\it gdp}) rank within a decade follows an exponential distribution with decay…

We consider a system of $N$ Hawkes processes and observe the actions of a subpopulation of size $K \le N$ up to time $t$, where $K$ is large. The influence relationships between each pair of individuals are modeled by i.i.d.Bernoulli($p$)…

The bootstrap is a method for estimating the distribution of an estimator or test statistic by re-sampling the data or a model estimated from the data. Under conditions that hold in a wide variety of econometric applications, the bootstrap…

Given a classification problem and a family of classifiers, the Rashomon ratio measures the proportion of classifiers that yield less than a given loss. Previous work has explored the advantage of a large Rashomon ratio in the case of a…