相关论文: Dengue model with early-life stage of vectors and …

Different extensions of the classical single-strain SIR model for the host population, motivated by modeling dengue fever epidemiology, have reported a rich dynamic structure including deterministic chaos which was able to explain the large…

A new method is proposed to infer unobserved epidemic sub-populations by exploiting the synchronization properties of multistrain epidemic models. A model for dengue fever is driven by simulated data from secondary infective populations.…

Capturing the structure of a population and characterising contacts within the population are key to reliable projections of infectious disease. Two main elements of population structure -- contact heterogeneity and age -- have been…

Ross-Macdonald models are the building blocks of most vector-borne disease models. Even for the same disease, different authors use different model formulations, but a study of the dynamical consequences of assuming different hypotheses is…

Over 50% of the world population is at risk of mosquito-borne diseases. Female Ae. aegypti mosquito species transmit Zika, Dengue, and Chikungunya. The spread of these diseases correlate positively with the vector population, and this…

Dengue fever is a flu-like illness spread by the bite of an infected mosquito which is fast emerging as a major health problem. Timely and cost effective diagnosis using clinical and laboratory features would reduce the mortality rates…

Most of the common used models of epidemic spreading allow contaminating many neighbors of a particular node in the network. They are usually analyzed by differential equations on probability vectors. We propose a model of epidemic…

We present an application of optimal control theory to Dengue epidemics. This epidemiologic disease is an important theme in tropical countries due to the growing number of infected individuals. The dynamic model is described by a set of…

Dengue is a viral infection that can produce a severe fever and symptoms that may require hospitalization. It is transmitted between humans by the urban-adapted, day-biting Aedes mosquitoes and is therefore a particular problem in towns and…

We present a SIR+ASI epidemic model to describe the interaction between human and dengue fever mosquito populations. A control strategy in the form of vaccination, to decrease the number of infected individuals, is used. An optimal control…

Age structure is incorporated in many types of epidemic model. Often it is convenient to assume that such models converge to early asymptotic behaviour quickly, before the susceptible population has been appreciably depleted. We make use of…

Infectious diseases often spread faster near their peak than would be predicted given early data on transmission. Despite the commonality of this phenomena, there are no known general mechanisms able to cause an exponentially spreading dis-…

This paper introduces a novel approach for dengue fever classification based on online learning paradigms. The proposed approach is suitable for practical implementation as it enables learning using only a few training samples. With time,…

We study the random times between successive cases in a transmission chain of infectious diseases with asymptomatic carriers. We derive the probability distribution of this generation time (in days) from a discrete-time epidemic model with…

Forecasting transmission of infectious diseases, especially for vector-borne diseases, poses unique challenges for researchers. Behaviors of and interactions between viruses, vectors, hosts, and the environment each play a part in…

In the last two decades dengue cases increased significantly throughout the world. In several regions dengue re-emerged, particularly in Latin America, where dengue cases not only increased but also occurred more frequently. It is therefore…

This paper describes a technique for analyzing the stochastic structure of the vectorial capacity using moment--generating functions. In such formulation, for an infectious disease transmitted by a vector, we obtain the generating function…

Dengue is a serious health problem in the Philippines. In 2016, the Department of Health of the country launched a dengue vaccination campaign using Dengvaxia. However, the campaign was mired with controversy and the use of Dengvaxia was…

We study a model for the spread of an infectious disease which incorporates spatial and temporal effects. The model is a delayed multi-type branching process in which types represent geographic regions while infected individuals reproduce…

In this paper, we consider the infection-age-dependent Kermack--McKendrick model in which host individuals are distributed in a continuous state space. To provide a mathematical foundation for the heterogeneous model, we develop a…