相关论文: Dengue model with early-life stage of vectors and …
Dengue viral infections show unique infection patterns arising from its four serot- ypes, (DENV-1,2,3,4). Its effects range from simple fever in primary infections to potentially fatal secondary infections. We analytically and numerically…
We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by…
Dengue fever impacts populations across the tropics. Dengue is caused by a mosquito transmitted flavivirus and its burden is projected to increase under future climate and development scenarios. The transmission process of dengue virus is…
The contact structure between hosts has a critical influence on disease spread. However, most networkbased models used in epidemiology tend to ignore heterogeneity in the weighting of contacts. This assumption is known to be at odds with…
We present a methodology providing a one-directional link from within-host individual heterogeneity to population-level disease transmission dynamics. The methodology works in several steps. A within-host model is investigated numerically…
Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease common in tropical areas, is spread by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Temperature changes driven by climate affect vector ecology and expand regions of species coexistence. The combined effect of…
We present a unifying, tractable approach for studying the spread of viruses causing complex diseases requiring to be modeled using a large number of types (e.g., infective stage, clinical state, risk factor class). We show that recording…
A class of stochastic vector-borne infectious disease models is derived and studied. The class type is determined by a general nonlinear incidence rate of the disease. The disease spreads in a highly random environment with variability from…
Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…
Vector-borne diseases arise from the coupled dynamics of human mobility and mosquito ecology, producing outbreaks shaped by both spatial distributions and temporal patterns of movement. Here we develop a coarse-grained hub--leaf reduction…
In 2009, for the first time in Cape Verde, an outbreak of dengue was reported and over twenty thousand people were infected. Only a few prophylactic measures were taken. The effects of vector control on disease spreading, such as…
The emergence or adaptation of pathogens may lead to epidemics, highlighting the need for a thorough understanding of pathogen evolution. The tradeoff hypothesis suggests that virulence evolves to reach an optimal transmission intensity…
When an infectious disease strikes a population, the number of newly reported cases is often the only available information that one can obtain during early stages of the outbreak. An important goal of early outbreak analysis is to obtain a…
Dengue is an infectious disease which poses significant socioeconomic and disease burden in many tropical and subtropical regions of the world. This work aims to provide additional insight into the association between dengue and climate in…
Mosquito vector competence is usually represented as a process in which once virus is detected in saliva, mosquitoes are assumed to remain infectious for life, implying an irreversible transition to the transmitting state. However, some…
In this study, we develop a multi criteria model to identify dengue outbreak periods. To validate the model, we performed a simulation using dengue transmission-related data in Sri Lanka's Western Province. Our results indicated that the…
Vector-borne diseases often infect multiple host species, increasing the likelihood of disease persistence due to the presence of multiple reservoirs. Vector biting patterns and feeding preferences can shift in response to selective…
Multivariate count time series models are an important tool for the analysis and prediction of infectious disease spread. We consider the endemic-epidemic framework, an autoregressive model class for infectious disease surveillance counts,…
Epidemics of communicable diseases place a huge burden on public health infrastructures across the world. Producing accurate and actionable forecasts of infectious disease incidence at short and long time scales will improve public health…
Identification of the influential clinical symptoms and laboratory features that help in the diagnosis of dengue fever in early phase of the illness would aid in designing effective public health management and virological surveillance…